Shuttle: The main disease in the poultry sector knocks on the doors of Brazil

Of the five largest chicken meat producers in the world, only Brazil has yet to register avian flu, a disease that has been forcing producers to discard part of their poultry.

The disease had a strong presence in China, where it persists, is in Europe and, this year, reached the United States. It advanced even further and reached neighboring Colombia, Peru and Ecuador.

Brazil entered a state of alert, and the country set up a war operation and a prevention cabinet. Defense measures are being discussed by all Latin American countries, due to the damage to meat production in the region that the disease can cause.

Government and companies get involved in the operations, with mapping of areas, training of professionals in the sector and even the prohibition of any visit to the farms.

“We are preparing for the worst, but I hope this does not happen”, says Ricardo Santin, president of ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein).

Brazil has two advantages over other countries: the Andes mountain range and the Amazon rainforest. In general, the appearance of the virus comes from wild birds, which have greater difficulties in reaching Brazil.

Avian flu is caused by the type A influenza virus. It has evolved and is highly pathogenic, that is, with a high rate of contagion.

The effect of avian influenza is great on poultry. In addition to the need to slaughter the birds, there is a delay in the production cycle.

This is what happens in the United States, which is going through a period of high inflation coming from turkeys, eggs and chicken meat, due to the effects of the disease, which settled in the country in January of this year.

Even with the billionaire resources given by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), the country has just recorded a record 52.4 million birds that had to be slaughtered.

The disease spreads and there are already 650 outbreaks in the country, spreading across 46 US states. Only Louisiana, Alabama, West Virginia and Hawaii are free of the virus.

It was expected that the disease would be controlled in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, which did not occur. The concern now is with the arrival of winter, which is more conducive to the occurrence of new outbreaks.

The United States is the world’s largest producer of poultry meat, putting 21 million tons of protein on the market per year, according to the USDA.

Brazil is the second largest producer, with 14.4 million tons, but leads world exports, selling 4.9 million tons of chicken meat abroad.

An eventual arrival of the disease in Brazil would put the Brazilian product under suspicion in several countries. Some will do it for health reasons; others, however, by trade barriers.

Brazil holds 35% of world exports, and should reach US$ 10 billion this year. There are close to R$ 55 billion coming from abroad to irrigate the national economy.

If the disease reaches the domestic market, both Brazilian and foreign consumers will be affected.

The country is so important in the world market that national exports exceed the entire production of Russia, the fifth largest global producer.

China lost the position of second largest producer to Brazil, and now occupies the third position, with 14.3 million tons. World trade in chicken meat is 14 million tons per year.

The effect of the disease on exports is based on the regionalization of each country. Importers place barriers in the affected regions.

Brazil, however, does not have a regionalization for the disease, because it is a free market for avian influenza.

One of the biggest challenges would be that, when certifying the meat, Brazil would no longer be able to classify it as free of the disease, and this would require a reformulation in negotiations with commercial partners, says Santin.

The country will need to be agile in controlling and identifying the disease, if it arrives. The production density is very close and the tests have to indicate if it is a simple flu or really avian flu. Isolation is fundamental and has to be done quickly, says the president of ABPA.

Santin believes, however, that the Brazilian health controls will work, just as they did when the disease hit Chile.

The requirement for a maximum alert level, however, must be present at all times from now on, he says.