The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Brazil increased by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, compared to the immediately previous three months, informed this Thursday (1st) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an increase of 0.6%.
GDP measures the production of goods and services in the country each quarter. The advance of the indicator is usually called economic growth.
The third quarter was marked by the electoral race in the country. On the eve of the October election, the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government sought to stimulate the economy through measures such as expanding the Brazil Aid to R$600 and tax cuts on fuel.
The activity also benefited from the reopening after the pandemic restrictions. Vaccination against Covid-19 allowed the return of part of the service sector, the economy’s main sector from the perspective of supply.
Bars, restaurants, hotels, gyms, beauty salons, shops and educational institutions are part of this segment.
High inflation, on the other hand, forced the BC (Central Bank) to raise interest rates. Monetary tightening, by the way, is pointed out as the main responsible for the projections of loss of pace of economic activity from the second half of 2022.
The hike in the basic interest rate (Selic), currently at 13.75% per year, makes household consumption and business investments more expensive. Turbulence in the international scenario also brings risks to the Brazilian economy.
The fourth quarter brings together important dates for trade: Black Friday and Christmas. Interest rates and high defaults, however, make it difficult to consume more expensive goods.
Financial market analysts project an increase of 2.81% for GDP in 2022, according to the median of the Focus bulletin, released on Monday (28) by the BC.
For the year 2023, the first of the new Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government, the expectation is for a more modest advance, of 0.70%, according to the same publication.
Analysts are still awaiting definitions on the management of the economic area in the PT administration. The financial market has already shown tension when seeing fiscal risks with possible spending in the new government.
GDP calculation
Products, services, rents, utilities, taxes and even smuggling. These are some of the components of the GDP, calculated by the IBGE, according to international standards.
The objective is to measure the production of goods and services in the country in a given period.
The indicator shows who produces, who consumes and the income generated from this production. GDP growth (discounting inflation) is often called economic growth.
The survey is presented from the point of view of supply (what is produced) and demand (how these products and services are consumed). Quarterly GDP is released approximately 60 days after the end of the period in question.
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