Commodities Shuttle: High prices and low income make Brazilians consume 8.6 kilos less meat per year

The Brazilian stopped consuming 8.6 kilos of meat per capita this year, compared to the previous one, considering the consumption of beef, pork and chicken.

In addition, there was a shift from more expensive proteins to more affordable products. This drop in consumption is the result of a difficult year for both the protein industry and consumers.

On the industry side, production costs were much higher this year. A breakdown in the corn crop, high grain exports, especially soybeans, more expensive energy and pressure from the dollar on imported inputs – the result was an increase in protein prices.

On the consumer side, unemployment, the rise in food, the return of inflation in general and the lack of income have taken away purchasing power and driven many away from proteins.

According to data this Thursday (16) from Scot Consulting, the consumption of beef, close to 35 kilos per capita in previous years, fell to 25 kg in this, a reduction of 29%.

Already the consumption of poultry and pork are on the rise, according to Ricardo Santin, ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein).

The average per capita consumption of chicken meat rose to 46 kilos this year, with an evolution of 2%. Pork was 16.8 kilos, up 5% in the year.

Much of the drop in beef consumption is due to price. The supply of cattle was lower, slaughter fell and exports, despite the interruption from China, remained heated. The result was an increase in retail prices.

Considering data from ABPA and Scot Consultoria for these three meats, the average consumption per Brazilian for this year is estimated at 87.8 kg, 8.9% below the 96.4 kg of the previous year.

Alcides Torres, from Scot, points out that, even in the period when China was out of the Brazilian market, the retail sector did not register a decline in beef.

When in place, emergency aid helped to absorb part of the impact of the increase. With the abolition of aid, consumption drops.

Refrigerators are in a tight spot, says Torres. Retailers, on the other hand, which were unable to pass on prices when cattle were high, maintained high protein values ​​during the period of decline in the price of the arroba, in order to restore margins.

The transfers in meat prices will continue in 2022, according to Santin. There will be a continuous and diluted increase throughout the year, due to the change in the level of production costs. These should not have strong readjustments, but will remain stable on the rise.

The ABPA executive assesses that the population’s income power does not allow for large increases, but that the ox should have upward adjustments with the return of China. As a result, other proteins will continue to gain space in consumer preference.

He says that some factors should allow an improvement in meat consumption next year. These reliefs will come from the increase in the minimum wage, the government’s Auxílio Brasil and an upturn in the economy.

Based on data from Torres and Santin, it is possible to predict that, without a recovery in consumer income — which should not happen in the short term — the average consumption of proteins will remain flat and with migration of more expensive products to the of lower prices.

ABPA released this year’s sector figures for this year and expectations for the next one, The production of chicken meat, which should reach 14.35 million tons this year, 3.5% more than in the previous year, it could reach 14.9 million in the next.

Exports remain heated, totaling 4.58 million in 2021, with an increase of 8%, and could reach 4.75 million in 2022.

The numbers were also good for pig farming, whose meat production will reach 4.7 million tons this year and 4.85 million the next. Exports go from 1.13 million to 1.2 million.