Transition PEC should have a two-year term, says rapporteur

The general rapporteur for the 2023 Budget, senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), said this Monday (5) that the rapporteur for the Transition PEC will be senator Alexandre Silveira (PSD-MG) and that the idea is to approve the text in the CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) of the Senate this Tuesday (6). The vote in plenary is scheduled for Wednesday (7).

Castro stated that the day will be one of intense negotiations and that the Senate and Chamber are still “counting the votes”. The Transition PEC is the main bet of the new government to pay Bolsa Família and honor campaign promises.

“We have to negotiate, we have to articulate, we have to count votes because it is not an easy vote. We need three-fifths of votes in the Senate and three-fifths in the Chamber. There are 49 senators, at least, and 308 deputies, which is not easy to achieve, but we are in negotiation. It is doable [aprovar nesta semana] and we need to vote,” said Castro.

Earlier, this Monday, he met with the President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MB) and with the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL).

The idea is that there is agreement on the text in both houses, so that it can be voted on and approved quickly.

“We are working for the PEC to be approved for two years. Today will be a day for articulations, negotiations, talking to the senators, counting the votes so that tomorrow we can approve, if possible, the Committee on Constitution and Justice. There is no change in this aspect [valor, de R$ 198 bilhões ao todo]”, said Castro.

Castro and Silveira met this Monday with the presidents of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP) and of the CCJ of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA ), in addition to the president of the CMO (Mista Budget Committee), deputy Celso Sabino (União-PA), the rapporteur for the 2022 budget, deputy Hugo Leal (PSD-RJ), and the leader of União Brasil, deputy Elmar Nascimento ( União Brasil-BA) —quoted to report the text to the Chamber.

Despite the schedule provided by the general rapporteur of the Budget, interlocutors of the elected government have already received the signal that senators from the base of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) should ask for a view (more time for analysis). In this case, the PEC could be voted in the CCJ on Wednesday morning and in the Senate plenary on Wednesday afternoon.

Asked about the possibility of merging the PEC of the Transition with the PEC presented by Senator Tasso Jereissatti (PSDB-CE), Castro stated that “anything is possible”, but that “it is not scheduled”. The PEC of Jereissatti proposes the expansion of the spending ceiling by R$ 80 billion.

On Sunday night (4), Pacheco had already stated that he would guide the PEC this week, next Wednesday (7).

With Pacheco’s decision, the expectation is that the chairman of the Constitution and Justice Commission, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), will start discussing the issue on Tuesday (6) so that it can be voted on Wednesday morning.

As shown to Sheetto get the necessary 308 votes in the House, Arthur Lira’s allies say that PP, PL and Republicans need to give at least 60 favorable votes.

The base of elected president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), which includes left-wing and center parties (MDB, PSD and União Brasil) that formed part of the alliance with PT in the second round of the presidential election, should just over 280 votes for the proposal.

The top of the Chamber, however, hopes to get the vote of 340 parliamentarians.

The PL estimates that it has at least 30 of the 76 favorable votes. PP leaders believe they have a larger margin, at least 35 of the 56 deputies; and the Republicans see the possibility of getting support from 60% of the bench, that is, 29 deputies.

The polls are preliminary, and the deputies consulted by the Sheet say that it is likely that there will be an agreement for the duration of two years and that the value still needs to be defined. According to the proposal filed in the Senate, the Transition PEC will have a four-year term, with an impact of R$ 198 billion.

Recently, during a private meeting, Lira told Lula that she will approve the text that comes from the Senate.

For that reason, the debate is being held with both Houses, so that the project, once it is put on the agenda, already has an agreement with senators and deputies and can move forward with speed and be approved before the end of the year.

The budget space that will be opened by the PEC is also disputed by the various areas of the future government.

Of the BRL 105 billion currently reserved for Brazil Aid and which may be redistributed in 2023, at least BRL 75 billion are claimed to avoid a blackout in the sectors most affected by cuts this year, such as Health and Education. Another R$ 10 billion are already in the plans of the new government.

The transition work groups mapped the scenario based on estimates made by members of the current Jair Bolsonaro government in order to meet the minimum needs of each area.

The text of the Transition PEC filed in the Senate on Monday (28) provides for the exclusion of the Auxílio Brasil –which will be renamed Bolsa Família– from the spending ceiling, a fiscal rule that limits the growth of expenses. The PT estimates BRL 175 billion to maintain the benefit of BRL 600 and pay an additional BRL 150 per child up to six years old.

The proposal also foresees a device that allows investments in case of extraordinary revenues, up to the limit of R$ 23 billion. In practice, the extract would rise to R$ 198 billion, although the value is not explicit in the proposal.