Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Bolsonaro loses to himself, shows Datafolha’s most relevant number

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The rejection of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) seems to be Datafolha’s most relevant fact about the election of president. There are just over nine months to go before the first round, there will still be candidates dancing and, often, the numbers for December fall apart over the course of the election year. For now, most importantly, research shows that Bolsonaro loses to himself when he is alone on stage.

Second, Datafolha shows that third- or fifth-way candidates do not tickle the leaders of the dispute, Lula and that type that occupies the chair of president.

The ensuing question is what Bolsonaro will do in despair, should the great revulsion persist until the middle of next year. The government has few decent or normal political resources to reverse the situation.

By 2022, 60% of voters say they would “no way” vote for Bolsonaro. Among the poorest, with a family income of less than two minimum wages, the rejection is 64%. In the region that at the moment causes less repulsion, the South, rejection is 54%. If he goes to the second round, Bolsonaro even loses to João Doria (46% to 34%), who scores only 3% or 4% in the first round vote.

Lula (PT) and Doria (PSDB) are rejected by 34%. Sergio Moro (We can), for 30%.

How could the rejection of Bolsonaro diminish (which means convincing the poorest that he is not repulsive)? What will you do if you remain so defeated by the middle of next year?

The government hopes that Auxílio Brasil will give Bolsonaro some points. The end of emergency aid for some 20 million people, however, should take as much away. In “everything for the social”, there is almost nothing left to pull out of a hat.

At best, the inflation rate should decrease, but the accumulated damage of the famine will not (there will be no relevant salary increase). More people should be employed next year, but employment growth will be much lower than in 2021 and, in practice, a lot of gains will come from odd jobs, other improvisations and desperate arrangements.

Bolsonaro’s conversation will have to be the usual one: criminal lies, slanderous propaganda of a communist conspiracy, against the family, against “our great Brazil” and general accusations of corruption (even if, until then, some result of the lawsuits about cracks appears or Bolsolão). The filthy campaign would come, of course, through attempts to circumvent the legal limits on the use of social media.

It could be that the dirt works. Also consider that there will be other attempts to crush Lula in the campaign, unless the PT is able to make an agreement with the “center”. For now, such an arrangement boils down to an attempt to repeat the trick of the “trustworthy deputy” (Geraldo Alckmin). But, both to face the campaign and, much more seriously, to govern, the agreement will have to be much broader and more grounded. The risk of an early sinking of any government and of the country, as early as 2023, is enormous.

Finally, a question that is not entirely gratuitous, is it possible that, instead of Lula getting allies, a coalition against the PT, with the extreme right, with everything, is formed?

In case it remains repugnant to most, would Bolsonaro go all the way? Would you believe that you could change the game with some digital fraud or revolt incited against your opponent, most likely Lula? Even if you’re on the verge of not even making it to the second round? Would it try a desperate measure, any political-police-military mess, violence? Or would he begin to think that, defeated, the risk that he, his sons and his fellow generals will spend at least a few days in jail is not so small? Even Michel Temer, the “national peacemaker”, was soaked for a while.

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