Follow the dollar rate this Wednesday (7)

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The dollar had a slight drop against the real in the first trades this Wednesday (7), in line with the outside world, but with investors still cautious before the vote on the Transition PEC in the Senate plenary and waiting for the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank.

At 9:14 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.23%, to R$ 5.2590 on sale.

On B3, at 9:14 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract rose 0.19%, to R$ 5.2820.

The day before, in a volatile session, the market closed with an increase in the stock market, a drop in future interest rates and a slight appreciation of the real.

The commercial dollar fell 0.24% to R$5.2690. The Ibovespa index, a parameter for shares traded on the Stock Exchange, rose 0.72%, to 110,188 points.

The advance in the Senate of the text of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition was the main highlight in the discussions between market analysts.

The CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission) of the Senate approved the PEC of the Transition for a period of two years with a fiscal impact of BRL 145 billion for the payment of Bolsa Família — BRL 30 billion less than that presented by the rapporteur.

The PEC also provides for an additional BRL 23 billion for investments outside the spending ceiling in case of extraordinary revenue collection. In practice, the proposal raises the extra expenditure to R$ 168 billion.

Abroad, equity markets closed predominantly negative. The S&P 500 index, which is the benchmark for the New York Stock Exchange, fell 1.44%. The Nasdaq indicator, which includes medium-sized companies in the technology sector and is more sensitive to expectations of persistent inflation and high interest rates, lost 2%.

In recent days, the perception among investors has grown that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank) will maintain the reference interest rate for the country at a level considered high (above 4% per year) and this has been fueling fears that there will be recession.

The explanation for this can be interpreted as contradictory, but it is precisely the strength of the American economy that causes this threat of recession in the future.

The Fed has been raising interest rates since the beginning of the year to curb historical inflation and the expected effects of this measure are the reduction of consumption and the supply of jobs (causing wages to stop rising). But this is happening slowly and, therefore, the tightening of the credit supply should be maintained for a longer time.

The concern about the effect of high interest rates on the American economy was pointed out by analysts as one of the reasons why, for the first time since January, the price of a barrel of Brent oil retreated to less than US$ 80.

There is yet another reason that puts downward pressure on oil prices. In a new round of economic sanctions against Russia, the European Union, supported by the G7 and Australia, set a limit of US$ 60 (R$ 315) per barrel so that ships carrying Russian oil could contract insurance and other services from European bloc companies. The Russian product has been exported for around US$65.

The value of Brent oil is a reference for the prices practiced by Petrobras.

The state-owned company announced that it will reduce this Wednesday (7) the prices of gasoline and diesel sold by its refineries. Gasoline will fall 6.1% to the lowest since the end of September 2021. The price of diesel will be reduced by 8.2%.

The company’s preferred shares, the company’s most traded shares on the Brazilian stock exchange, began to fall after the announcement, but rose again with the more optimistic market after the approval of the PEC and ended the session with a slight increase of 0.08%.

With Reuters

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