Transition PEC, Selic, layoffs at Loft and what matters in the market

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PEC of the Transition passes through the Senate

The Senate plenary approved this Wednesday (7) the Transition PEC. The base text was approved by 64 votes to 16 – at least 49 were needed and the government estimated it had 54 to 60.

In numbers: the proposal makes a little pull on the spending ceiling of BRL 145 billion in 2023 and 2024 for the payment of Bolsa Família of R$ 600 and an additional R$ 150 per child up to six years old.

• Others BRL 23 billion may be used for investments outside the ceiling in case of extraordinary income.

• A new feature of the text is that it allows funds that have been sitting in PIS/Pasep accounts for at least 20 years to fund investments outside the tax rule. In August, Caixa informed that there are BRL 24.6 billion in PIS/Pasep quotas.

The BRL 105 billion space opened in the 2023 Budget (the amount was reserved for the Auxílio Brasil of R$ 405) can be used to recompose programs such as Popular Pharmacy, Minha Casa Minha Vida and readjust the minimum wage above inflation.

• The proposal, however, provides that the destination of the money will be defined by the elected government and also by Congress.

Gap for 2022: in the stretch that allows investments of up to BRL 23 billion in case of extraordinary revenues, the lock that this measure would only be valid from 2023 was removed.

Other PEC points:

• It removes from the ceiling expenses of federal educational institutions funded by own revenues, such as donations or agreements. Donations to environmental funds are also outside the expense limit.

• It foresees that the Executive will submit a new proposal for a fiscal rule by August 31, 2023. When it is approved (by complementary bill), the current ceiling will be revoked from the Constitution.

BC plays still

Unsurprisingly, the BC maintained the Selic rate at 13.75% per annum for the third consecutive meeting – the market expects the rate to remain at this level for most of next year.

The expectation of economic agents was about the message that the monetary authority would send to president-elect Lula (PT) and his fiscal policy.

in the communiquéthe BC said it “will closely monitor future developments in fiscal policy and, in particular, their effects on asset prices and inflation expectations”.

• Discussions of the Transition PEC made future interest rates rise and reduced the market’s perspective of a fall in the Selic rate before the middle of next year.

• Some houses even expect it to remain at the current level for the entire year of 2023.

Opinion | Vinicius Torres Freire: The general pessimism of the communiqué rose half a tone, writes the columnist.

in investmentsfixed income continues to be the trend, as shown by the search engine Yubb.

• Tax-exempt securities, such as LCA and LCI letters of credit and incentivized debentures, stand out, with real returns (disregarding projected inflation) estimated at 7.04%, 7.43% and 9.10%respectively.

Experts, however, recommend caution in choosing fixed-income securities in the face of fiscal uncertainty.

• The lack of definition about public accounts may once again bring down the market value of pre-fixed rates, but for those who are betting on an improvement in the scenario at the beginning of the next term, the current level represents an opportunity.

Musk Loses Richest Rank – For Hours

Elon Musk lost for a few hours this Wednesday (7) the title of richest person in the world in the Forbes ranking.

He was overtaken by Bernard Arnault and his family, from the luxury empire LVMH – which controls brands such as Louis Vuitton, Tiffany and Moët & Chandon –, but he regained the lead at the end of the day.

In numbers: Musk ended the day with a fortune of $185.4 billion (BRL 967.8 billion), while Bernard Arnault added $184.7 billion (BRL 964.1 billion).

• Third on the list is Indian energy tycoon Gautam Adani, with $134.8 billion. His company value skyrocketed with energy inflation this year (we tell his story here).

Down the drain: Musk’s fortune accompanied the sharp drop in Tesla’s shares this year in the face of the negative scenario for technology companies on the Stock Exchange.

• The billionaire’s offer to buy Twitter didn’t help either.

• Tesla has lost nearly half of its market value and Musk’s net worth has dropped by about $70 billion since he made the social media offer in April.

• The South African also owns the startups SpaceX, Neuralink (brain chips) and The Boring Company (which plans to build underground tunnels in cities).

The five richest in the worldaccording to Forbes:

• Elon Musk (Tesla) – $185.4 billion (BRL 967.8 billion);
• Bernard Arnault and family (LMVH) – $184.7 billion (BRL 964.1 billion);
• Gautam Adani (Adani Group) – $134.8 billion (BRL 703.6 billion);
• Jeff Bezos (Amazon) – $111.8 billion (BRL 583.6 billion);
• Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) – $105.9 billion (BRL 552 billion);

The richest Brazilian is Jorge Paulo Lemann and family, in 106th position, with $15.8 billion (BRL 82.5 billion).

Loft dismisses 312 more

Loft communicated this Wednesday (7) the dismissal of over 312 employees. The cut corresponds to 12% of the staff of 2,600 employees.

• This is the third wave of cuts for the real estate startup. In April, there were 159 employees, and in May, another 384. In all, the company laid off 815 workers this year.

According to Loft, the cuts are part of the company’s restructuring plan after purchasing platforms that operate in the same segment.

• In the April layoffs, the startup reported that the decision was part of the integration process with CrediHome, a real estate credit company acquired in 2021.

In addition to CrediHome, Loft has made a series of acquisitions since 2021: CredPago, for rentals, without bail; Vista, real estate software; 123i, condominium portal; Foxter, a real estate agent from Rio Grande do Sul; and TrueHome, which became Loft Mexico.

Loft said that former employees will have an extension of their health plan for two months, support for the professional outplacement process, among other benefits.

wave of layoffs Announcements of mass cuts among Brazilian unicorns (startups valued at US$1 billion or more) were concentrated in the first half of the year, when high interest rates in the US hit the market and money to invest in startups became scarce.

• In the second half of the year, it was the turn of cuts in big techs, like Meta (owner of Facebook), Twitter and Microsoft.