PT seeks to put out fire with Lira to avoid dehydration of the PEC in the Chamber

Amid the complaint of federal deputies about the version of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition approved by the Senate, the government of president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) wants to reinforce the agreement with the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP), so that the text is not dehydrated.

Lira had told the PT that the Chamber would approve the text that came out of the Senate, without changes, but a wing of the centrão insists on reducing the period from two years to one year. The pressure comes mainly from the parties that support President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – Republicans, Progressives and PL, in addition to União Brasil.

The proposal approved this Wednesday (7) by the Senate increases the spending ceiling by BRL 145 billion in 2023 and 2024 for the payment of Auxílio Brasil (which will once again be called Bolsa Família) and releases BRL 23 billion for investments outside the cap in case of collection of extraordinary income, in addition to containing other measures.

To preserve the text, the PT has the support of the president of the Chamber and the leader of the União Brasil bench, federal deputy Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil-BA) – currently the most quoted to assume the rapporteurship in the Chamber.

Elmar already met with Lula, when União Brasil was invited to be part of the base of the new government, and also with Alckmin more recently to discuss the PEC. On the second (5), the deputy met with the presidents of both Houses, in addition to the general rapporteur for the Budget, senator Marcelo Castro (MDB-PI), and the rapporteur for the Senate, Alexandre Silveira (PSD-MG).

This Wednesday, after the approval of the proposal in the Senate, Elmar told deputies that he is not opposed to the two-year period – considered fundamental by the PT so that there is time to work on the 2024 Budget (the first stage, the budget guidelines project, needs to be completed in four months) before defining the fiscal rule to replace the spending cap. Even so, he warned that he would need to hear a majority of the House on this matter.

Therefore, the final version of the PEC will depend on the PT’s political articulation. A change such as the shortening of the deadline would represent a hard defeat for Lula, also because the proposal would have to return to the Senate in the final stretch of the work of the Legislative, that is, with little margin for new negotiations.

The leader of União Brasil, however, already wants to discuss with the elected government how the fiscal space opened in the Budget will be applied, in addition to the devices that should increase the amount available to Lula —such as the abandoned resources in the PIS/Pasep accounts there are in the minimum 20 years.

The federal deputy has not yet positioned himself on the impact of the PEC. The original proposal foresaw BRL 175 billion for the payment of Bolsa Família, but the amount ended up being reduced to BRL 145 billion during negotiations at the Senate’s CCJ (Constitution and Justice Commission). Some members of the centrão also want to dehydrate this value even more.

Lula’s allies entered the field this Wednesday to try to prevent the ongoing trial of the STF (Federal Supreme Court) on the rapporteur’s amendments from undermining the PT’s plans to build a political base for the new government in Congress and to approve the Transition PEC in the manner approved by the Senate.

The climate improved after PT members sought out Lira to pass on the message that Lula did not articulate for the STF to guide the actions that question the amendments, nor will he try to influence the result.

On Wednesday, the Minister of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), met with the PP bench to discuss the party’s relationship with the transition team and the position in relation to the PEC. According to reports from two deputies, Ciro defended at the meeting that the deadline for the PEC be one year.

The minister, one of the main leaders of the party, also told them that he is in favor of postponing the vote on the PEC if no STF minister asks for a view (more time for analysis) in the judgment on the rapporteur’s amendments, which will be resumed on Wednesday. fair (14).

The president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), said this Thursday that the vote on the PEC and the judgment of the rapporteur’s amendments in the STF “are independent things” and said he was confident in the approval in the neighboring House.

“Our commitment to the country to establish Bolsa Família, to vote on a proposed amendment to the Constitution, should not be influenced by a decision by the STF. But it is obvious that the National Congress has its conviction in relation to the rapporteur’s amendments and that is externalized at the trial.”

In a statement sent to the STF, Congress defended the constitutionality of the rapporteur’s amendments and defended that the Court’s ministers maintain the mechanism used for political negotiations.

Pacheco also stated that he hopes that the Chamber of Deputies will approve the text in the same size and under the same conditions. According to him, there was nothing “innovative” in the House he presides over that could have surprised federal deputies.

“I did not make contact with President Arthur Lira, but there was always a perception that the Senate, when making this decision to make the PEC the size it was and under the conditions in which it was established, [geraria] an expectation that the Chamber can forward in the same way”, said Pacheco.

Behind the scenes, parliamentarians commented that Lira would have been dissatisfied with the lack of alignment in the Chamber in relation to the text of the PEC negotiated in the Senate.

Pacheco and Castro ruled out the possibility of leaving the vote on the PLOA (Annual Budget Bill) for next year. The law contains the federal government spending forecast for the following year.

The budget rapporteur stated that he is already working on his report based on the text of the PEC approved by the Senate. The senator has been demanding approval of the proposal in time to make adjustments to his report. Initially, he said he needed the text by December 16th. On Thursday, he stated that “the sooner the House approves it, the better”.

The PEC is the main bet of the president-elect to fulfill campaign promises, such as maintaining Bolsa Família at R$ 600 and an additional R$ 150 per child up to six years old. The amount reserved for the program without the PEC is only enough to pay R$ 405 per family.

The distribution of the use of resources to be authorized by the PEC will not only be the prerogative of the elected government —as envisaged in the initial proposal—, but also by the permanent committees of Congress. The general rapporteur for the Budget stated, however, that he will comply with the requests of the transition team.

In an agreement between party leaders and the PT, the Senate left a loophole so that the PEC could also make room in the 2022 Budget. locks that this measure would only be valid from 2023.

With that, there is room for the Bolsonaro government to release parliamentary amendments that are blocked because of the fiscal tightening. The articulation to use Lula’s PEC to unlock the amendments of the president’s allies was revealed by Sheet in November.

The extra spending deepens the negative result in the public accounts expected for 2023, if there is no increase in revenue or cut in expenses sufficiently. The Budget officially projects a shortfall of BRL 63.5 billion, but the current government has updated this estimate to a lower figure, although still negative at BRL 40.4 billion.

The existence of public deficits indicates that the government is financing expenditures by issuing a larger volume of Brazilian debt. The cost is close to the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, currently at 13.75% per year.