Inflation expectations for this year fall, but remain above target

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank forcefully reduced their expectations for inflation at the end of this year, but still above the ceiling of the target, leaving unchanged the scenarios for the economy and interest rates.

The Focus survey released this Monday (12) by BC shows that the projection for the IPCA rise in 2022 fell to 5.79%, from 5.92% in the previous week. The change comes in the wake of a lower-than-expected result in November for inflation, with the IPCA rising 0.41%.

On January 10, the IBGE will release the final IPCA numbers for 2022. Despite the reduction, the expectation for inflation in the survey is still above the ceiling of the target –3.5%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points for more or less.

For 2023 and 2024 the calculations for the rise in prices have not changed, remaining at 5.08% and 3.5% respectively. For these years, the targets are 3.25% and 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), growth estimates were unchanged at 3.05% and 0.75% for this year and the next. There was also no change in the perspective that the basic Selic interest rate will end 2023 at 11.75%, against 13.75% currently.