Follow the dollar rate this Thursday (15)

The dollar had a slight rise against the real in the first trades this Thursday (15), following the appreciation of the US currency abroad after the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, while, in Brazil, investors followed the PEC procedure of Spending.

At 9:14 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 0.22%, at R$ 5.3210 on sale.

On the B3, at 9:14 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract rose 0.54%, to R$ 5.3380.

This Wednesday (14), the financial market went through a day of intense volatility, with emphasis on the shares of companies controlled by the government, which plummeted on the Stock Exchange after approval of changes in the State-owned Law by the Chamber of Deputies on Tuesday night (13).

Petrobras’ preferred shares, which are the most traded in the state-owned company, plunged 7.93% and exerted the main negative pressure on the Ibovespa. The company’s ordinary shares fell 9.80%, thus registering the second biggest drop since February 22, 2021, when the departure of Roberto Castello Branco from the company’s presidency was announced, the date on which the share fell 20.48%. On October 24 the common stock fell 9.89%.

Almost two months after reaching its highest market value, of R$ 520 billion, on October 21, Petrobras has been facing a sequence of falls on the Stock Exchange that reduced the company to a value of R$ 301 billion. The fall is R$ 219 billion in the period, according to a survey by TradeMap. The loss in the period is almost equal to the entirety of Ambev’s market value, which stands at R$238 billion.

Banco do Brasil, also controlled by the government, lost 2.47% this Wednesday.

The pressure on public companies occurred as a result of the effort of the elected government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to change the Law of State Companies and, thus, facilitate appointments of politicians to command public companies.

The legislation was amended to reduce to 30 days the quarantine period for nominees to occupy positions of president and director of public companies. The change may pave the way for ex-Minister Aloizio Mercadante to become president of the BNDES.

Despite the losses of the state-owned companies, the Brazilian Stock Exchange ended the day with a slight increase after oscillating during the day between strong lows and moderate increases. Gains in sectors such as banking and mining offset, at least in part, the sharp declines in the shares of Petrobras and BB.

The Ibovespa, the Exchange’s reference index, closed up 0.20%, at 103,745 points. At the high of the day, it reached 104,515 and, at the low, at 101,631 points.

The relief, registered mainly in the afternoon and over other areas, was attributed by analysts to several reasons, among which the confirmation of the deceleration in the increase of interest rates in the United States, after a meeting of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the central bank American), and technical market movements.

Also in the afternoon, the future Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, stated that the expansion of public spending should not be the engine driving economic growth at the moment and that an eventual stimulus could come from the reduction in interest rates.

In the Brazilian foreign exchange market, the spot dollar was close to stability, retreating only 0.01%, quoted at R$ 5.3090 at sale. Abroad, the American currency retreated 0.36%, according to the indicator that compares it with a group of strong currencies.

In the futures interest market, after spending part of the day on the rise, the DI (Interbank Deposits) rate for 2024 advanced towards the end of the afternoon to 14.07% per annum, after having closed the previous day at 14.06%. Contracts maturing in 2025, however, showed rates rising from 13.65% to 13.84%.

Although they are negotiated only between financial institutions, the DI rates bring the sector’s expectation about the need to raise interest rates by the Central Bank of Brazil in a scenario of increased public spending and, consequently, higher inflation. These expectations end up serving as a reference for credit in the country.

Analysts at Quantzed stated that, despite the volatility heightened by the Fed’s decision, the movement of the domestic market this Wednesday was basically influenced by local reasons, linked to the transition of government and speeches by members of the future management.

Marcelo Oliveira, a partner at Quantzed, also pointed out that the end of the period for the exercise of the right to purchase shares by a large market operator this afternoon ended up helping to reverse part of the losses on the Ibovespa.

“There was a completely technical movement of expiry of options and expiry of the index. People did not roll over the position and had to reset the market. The movement started after 2:54 pm, which is exactly the time that the adjustment on contract expiration day begins index futures,” he said.

US stocks fall after Fed interest rate release

In the external scenario, the Fed this Wednesday raised its interest rate for the seventh time in 2022, but the increase of 0.50 percentage points was lower than those applied in the last four meetings of its monetary policy committee, which were 0 ,75 point.

With that, the Fed’s interest rate target advances to a level of 4.25% and 4.5% a year. This value is in line with expectations from market analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency.

The less aggressive rise in interest rates confirms the expectation that the members of the Fomc, the acronym for the Fed’s open market committee, consider that the tightening of credit is achieving the purpose of curbing the rise in prices.

Since the current cycle of interest rate hikes began at the beginning of this year, this is the first time that the Fomc opts for an increase lower than that given at the immediately previous meeting. Before the last four increases of 0.75 points, the committee had applied an increase of 0.25 in March and 0.50 in May.

In the United States, the main stock market indicators closed lower, after having advanced for almost the entire day still lulled by the inflation data below expectations the day before.

The S&P 500 benchmark indicator fell by 0.61%. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes lost 0.76% and 0.42%, respectively.

The absence of signs in the Fed’s statement that the end of the cycle of high interest rates could arrive soon returned concerns to investors, according to Camila Abdelmalack, chief economist at Veedha Investimentos.

“Although the high comes as expected, they have not signaled what the next step will be and whether they are already close to the end of the cycle of raising interest rates”, he said.

With Reuters