Markets signal for investment grade – ‘Window’ for new support package in 2023

By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

November’s significant tax revenue overrun ensures not only that this year’s revised fiscal target will be met but also that some fiscal space will be created. However, unlike the previous times, the government will not rush to return it to the citizens, but according to information it will… keep them in order to record a better fiscal result while turning a blind eye to the markets. “It is the last fiscal signal before the investment stage” commented an official of the Ministry of Finance.

An investment level for which the government states that it is almost certain that it will be recovered in 2023, driven also by the contacts they had with the markets during their trip to the USA Staikouras and Skylakakis. Exactly when the tier will come will depend on geopolitical developments but also on exactly when they will be held and who will be the winner of the upcoming elections.

One of the most important factors that led to the revenue exceeding €312m in November is electronic transactions. November’s transactions were higher compared to the corresponding month of 2019 at a rate similar to what happened in October and September, which means according to the Ministry of Finance that there is no slowdown in consumption yet, although it is expected to happen. It is typical that in the 11th month of the year, electronic transactions amount to €39 billion, when in the whole of 2019 they did not exceed €19 billion.

But if the money from his execution budget will be kept …. kava, the same will not happen with the revenues expected from the taxation of the refineries and which according to the first estimates made by the Ministry of Finance will hardly fall below €600 million. This money, which has not been included in the 2023 budget and by the end of the year the government will have to announce what it will do with it. According to all the information …. the announcement will be made by the Prime Minister himself from the floor of the Parliament during the budget voting process on Saturday night.

The prime minister is expected to announce a package of support for the most vulnerable to be implemented in 2023 and with an emphasis on the precision on the shelf that Christine Lagarde warned about yesterday, saying that in Frankfurt they estimate that food prices will continue to rise in the first months of 2023.

Where there is currently no need for intervention – according to Ministry of Finance officials – it is in fuel as the price of diesel has significantly de-escalated, falling below that of unleaded which has also followed the international trend, albeit with a delay. As for heating oil, its price is around €1.10/liter and depending on the course of prices in the next few days, it will be assessed whether its subsidy will continue, for which, however, the relevant funds have been provided.

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