Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Lula and the Christmas miracle of office

Lula da Silva still has six fat ministries to distribute among candidates for government allies. As for state-owned companies, they have little in their pockets, unless they decide to chop up the State-Owned Law and throw the filth on the fan.

Eletrobras no longer has the historic hanger. Petrobras may not even be enough for the PT. Larger public banks may yield some management, even with “technical” restrictions. What remains is Codevasf, a budget company, so to speak, foundations/funds in Health and Education (great risk of theft there), some directors of a regional bank, smaller state-owned companies, but somewhat bankrupt.

The most prominent ministries in dispute are Health, Infrastructure, Mines and Energy, Cities, Regional Integration and Social Development (Bolsa Família).

In the Dilma 1 government, Health was with the PT, Infrastructure with the PL, Mines and Energy with the MDB, Cities with the PP and Regional Integration with the PSB, in fact with Fernando Bezerra Coelho, now in the MDB and former leader of Jair Bolsonaro. Social Development stayed with the PT.

In the second division, Development (MDIC) also got the PT, Agriculture with the MDB (Kátia Abreu) ​​and Social Security with the MDB.

Even giving fat slices of the cake to the coalition, Dilma Rousseff suffered in Congress, which ended up cutting off her head. In the first wave of the cabinet, moreover, there were ministers full of rolls, people who ended up falling into the so-called Dilmian “cleaning”.

In the Congress elected in 2010, the PT was the largest party in the Chamber (68 deputies). The ally or close enemy MDB had 65 and the biggest opposition was the PSDB, with 54 (DEM had 21). Most of the rest was negotiable. In numbers, Lula’s situation is worse.

The biggest party now is the hard-line Bolsonarist-negotiate PL, with 99 deputies (the PT has 68). PP, malleable Bolsonarist-negotiator, but with a lot of anti-PT, União Brasil, PSD, MDB and Republicans gather 231 deputies. It is an adulterous mixture of everything, but it is there, with many right-wing defections, that Lula can seek a support bloc, for now unstable, to join the small parliamentary left.

União Brasil, MDB and PP want half a dozen fat ministries. It won’t work for everyone.

If Health gets a nomination from Lula (Nísia Trindade, from Fiocruz), there will be even less left, unless an ally receives a gift like Funasa, which would turn the ministry into a lame duck. Furthermore, after the disaster of Bolsonaro and generals, handing over Health to anyone would be a national insult.

If Lula throws Simone Tebet overboard, taking away Social Development (which the PT also wants), it will put an end to the illusions of a “broad front”.

Tourism may be a minor prize, which should go to the PSD. Agriculture should stay with the PP. It is possible to accommodate MDB, another PP and a União Brasil in Infrastructure, Cities, Mines and Energy and Infrastructure, but Lula will have opponents in the Senate or in the Chamber (each party wants a minister from each House). Regional disputes further complicate the composition. And the Republicans, from Universal, take what?

As Josué Gomes, from Fiesp, refused the MDIC, a smaller chair remains. But is Lula going to throw a stranger into the economy’s nest, all torn apart and under suspicion from the owners of money?

Lula will have to hand over more ministries than Dilma. There is more opposition, less state to haggle with, the right is very strong, there is no money for anything (which would allow other arrangements to be made) and the PT seems to have little inclination towards “national unity”.

Lula has a week to manage to take off his socks without taking off his shoes.