The market began to see the highest basic interest rate in 2024, amid the increase in the projection for inflation in 2023, according to the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday (19).
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, shows that the consulted analysts continue to see the Selic at 11.75% at the end of 2023, against the current rate of 13.75%. But they started to calculate the rate at 9.0% in 2024, from 8.5% before.
According to the weekly survey of a hundred economists, the projection for the IPCA rise in 2022 fell by 0.03 percentage points, to 5.76%, indicating that it will end this year above the ceiling of the target —3.5% , with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
But for 2023 the movement was the opposite, with specialists raising the inflation account by 0.09 points, to 5.17% —in this case the objective is 3.25%, with the same margin, which means that the result would also exceed the upper limit of the target.
For 2024, where the center of the target is 3.0%, the bill continues to be 3.50% inflation.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), growth estimates are respectively 3.05%, 0.79% and 1.67% from 2022 to 2024, against previously forecast rates of 3.05%, 0.75% and 1.70%.
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