Government improves primary surplus projection to BRL 34 billion in 2022

The Ministry of Economy improved its estimate for the fiscal result of the central government in 2022 this Thursday (22), also announcing the release of funds and the possibility of a new release.

The portfolio highlighted the opening of extraordinary credit in the amount of BRL 7.564 billion through a provisional measure last week, which implied a reduction in the need for credits for mandatory expenses and, consequently, a reduction in the need to block discretionary primary expenses. , in the same amount.

The MP released extraordinary credits, which are not accounted for in the spending cap rule, to fund social security benefits this year-end.

“This then allowed us to unblock resources that were intended for social security spending. Once the provisional measure is opened, it is outside the spending ceiling,” explained the Federal Budget Secretary, Ariosto Culau.

In this way, the completeness of the funding resources of the organs and the integrality of the Ministry of Health was unlocked. In addition, a residual portion of the unlockable amount was proportionally distributed by body in investment expenses in the amount of R$379.6 million (5% of the total unlocking amount).

In November, in the revenue and expenditure report for the fifth bimetre, the total amount blocked reached R$ 15.380 billion.

But, after freeing up space with the MP and relocating discretionary expenses to mandatory ones, such as those provided for in the Paulo Gustavo Law, in support of the cultural sector, the report also brings the possibility of an additional release of R$ 547.3 million in discretionary expenses.

“It’s a small amount, but the most important thing, in our extemporaneous assessment, is for us to confirm our assumptions regarding mandatory expenses”, added Culau.

The data are contained in the portfolio’s extemporaneous income and expenditure report, which assesses compliance with the fiscal target and the ceiling rule.

In it, the ministry now projects a primary surplus of BRL 34.141 billion in 2022, equivalent to 0.3% of GDP. The previous estimate, from November, was R$ 23.361 billion, or 0.2% of GDP.

The positive balance expected in 2022 will be the first after eight years of fiscal gaps, and will be well above the primary deficit target of R$ 170.5 billion stipulated for this year.

The data concerns the central government, which brings together the Treasury, Social Security and Central Bank accounts and does not account for expenses with the payment of interest on the public debt.

According to the report, the government increased the projected net revenues to BRL 1.860 trillion, from BRL 1.855 trillion forecast in November. The estimated total expenses increased to BRL 1.826 trillion, from BRL 1.832 trillion before.