Haddad’s choices to compose government divide specialists

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The announcement made this Thursday (22) by the future Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), regarding the new members of his technical team divided specialists. For some, the appointment of Rogério Ceron (National Treasury), Robinson Barreirinhas (Federal Revenue Service), Guilherme Mello (Economic Policy) and Marcos Barbosa Pinto (Reforms) seems like a repeat of the Dilma Rousseff (PT) government, with a developmental bias, which sends chills to the financial market.

For others, however, the names announced by Haddad so far —which include Bernard Appy as special secretary for tax reform and Gabriel Galípolo as executive secretary— are qualified enough to guarantee a good dialogue with the financial market. Furthermore, as most of them are young, they can propose new solutions in the public sector.

“The economic policy aligned with the desires of the financial market, adopted in the last two governments [Michel Temer e Jair Bolsonaro]proved to be a failure for public policies”, says André Biancarelli, director of the Institute of Economics at Unicamp (State University of Campinas).

According to him, the absence of the state in fundamental areas, such as education and health, will continue to have repercussions for a long time in the economy.

The announcement of names like that of Guilherme Mello counterbalances this vision and shows itself to be in tune with what the new government proposes, he says. Mello is the coordinator of the graduate program in economic development at Unicamp, was responsible for the government plan of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the electoral campaign and, according to Haddad, played a decisive role in defining the technical subsidies that guided the negotiation of the Gastança PEC.

“He is a person open to different opinions and to negotiation”, says Biancarelli. According to him, Haddad’s new secretariat, in general, is open to dialogue and sensible choices, which privilege the collective, unlike the previous government, which adopted a “sectarian” posture.

“It’s a team ready to work in dialogue with the financial market —with names like Galípolo and Barbosa Pinto— and, at the same time, has experience with the structure of the State, like Ceron and Appy”, he says.

In the opinion of Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, only the name of Bernard Appy has pleased so far. “But he goes to a special secretariat, to take care of tax reform”, he says. Rogério Ceron, for the Treasury Secretariat, was also “good”, but it is “a secretariat that doesn’t have much to change, it’s round”, he says.

“In general, Haddad’s names left something to be desired in terms of being more plural, as he had promised”, says Cruz.

“The names of Guilherme Mello, Gabriel Galípolo and others are far from what we imagined”, says the strategist, recalling the bets on Felipe Salto (Secretary of Finance for the state of São Paulo) and economist Marco Bonomo, professor at Insper .

“These were names that were more developmental, more like Dilma’s government, than a mixture of governments, or even more like Lula 1”, he says.

“Galípolo wrote an article this year with Haddad talking about a single currency for Mercosur. Everyone is more afraid of his ideas. And Guilherme Mello has an agenda much more similar to that of Nelson Barbosa [ex-ministro da Fazenda] and Marcio Holland’s [ex-secretário de Política Econômica do Ministério da Fazenda]which did not work well in the Dilma government.”

For Cruz, Haddad corresponded to the concern that the financial market had in relation to him, to be developmentalist. “There is no way to be optimistic about what comes ahead, despite hoping that he will be a great minister”, he says.

‘Boat in the hand of an adventurer’

Juliana Inhasz, professor and coordinator of graduation in economics at Insper, believes that Haddad was wrong in not putting a career technician in the Federal Revenue (Barreirinhas is a lawyer and was secretary of Legal Affairs for the city of São Paulo).

One of the virtual topics on Barreirinhas’ agenda would be the taxation of large fortunes, which, for Juliana, “takes immense energy” with very low earnings, and the best profile to deal with the subject would be a technician.

In the Treasury, Ceron’s name carries “some breath” for being a career auditor. “But we could be better served with someone who already works with this, like Felipe Salto”, he says.

Marcos Barbosa Pinto, at the Secretariat for Economic Reforms, comes from the financial market (former director of the Central Bank and partner at Gávea Investimentos), but does not “appease”, she says. “He has a policy more in line with the principles of the left.”

The professor at Insper says, however, that the name of Guilherme Mello for the Secretariat of Economic Policy is much more “worrying”. “He IS an extremely young academic, with no experience in the public sector, with a distorted view of the role of the State in the economy, laden with ideologies”, she says. “We are giving the boat to an adventurer.”

Rafael Pacheco, an economist at Guide Investimentos, agrees that the most controversial name is that of Guilherme Mello. “But, as he was already both in Lula’s campaign and in the transition, he was well anticipated by the market”, he says, for whom most of the announced names did not come as a big surprise.

Pacheco adds that, in general, the nominations are technical and qualified names, although they are linked to the ideological core of the PT, having already worked in previous administrations of Haddad himself or the party.

The Economist from Guide also says that, despite the declarations of the future Minister of Finance that there will be fiscal responsibility in the government, there is still skepticism from financial agents due to the indication of names that defend greater intervention by the State.

‘Very well-trained young people’

Chief Economist at Mirae Asset Wealth Management, Julio Hegedus Netto indicates a slightly more positive view in relation to the announced secretaries. For him, the four are “very well formed” young people.

Former finance secretary of São Paulo during the Haddad administration, Rogério Ceron managed to clean up the municipality’s finances, the fourth largest budget in the country, says Hegedus Netto. “Under his management, by the way, São Paulo obtained investment grade by the rating agencies.”

Marcos Barbosa Pinto, says the Mirae economist, will be responsible for creating new projects in the economic area. Hegedus Netto recalls that the new secretary was nominated in 2019 by Joaquim Levy for the BNDES, but his past in PT governments ended up causing Bolsonaro to veto him, later resulting in the departure of Levy himself.

“Barbosa came to advise Haddad at the Ministry of Education, being one of the mentors in formatting Prouni and several Public-Private Partnerships.”

The future Minister of Finance thus forms a secretariat full of young names, but with great experience in the public sector, in the opinion of the economist at Mirae.

“We think it could be a positive bet, because everyone, with the exception of Guilherme Mello, doesn’t have such an ideological bias, being very technically qualified.”

He also adds that, although he graduated from Unicamp, Mello is considered a technically well-qualified economist, without so many ideological rancids, considered more pragmatic.

‘Cautious optimism’ to counter ‘chaos view’

William Baghdassarian, an economist at Ibmec Brasília, sees the choices with “cautious optimism”. “Rogério Ceron has a lot of experience, he managed to reverse the accounts of the city of São Paulo”, he says.

“Bernardo Appy is a reference in tax reform, his challenge will be to find the tone so that people lose as little as possible”, he says. The other members know the financial market and are capable of promoting good communication, he believes.

On the other hand, the fiscal situation is worrisome and there is a large social liability – around 33 million people in extreme poverty and 67 million in default.

“But we have a comfortable exchange rate situation in terms of international reserves, a monetary policy that is managing to bring inflation down, the reforms carried out in recent years have brought some productivity gains to the economy”, he says. “I don’t share the expectation that chaos will ensue.”

The appointment of Lula’s ministry brought good expectations, according to Baghdassarian, doctor in finance from the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom.

“I don’t remember having seen as many black belts in the ministry as I do now,” he says. “We have Camilo Santana, Rui Costa, Flávio Dino, Geraldo Alckmin —whom I consider an extremely qualified person”, he says.

“By placing former governors as ministers, a position of such magnitude, you gain a lot of ability to articulate with Congress”, says Baghdassarian, who sees qualities in Haddad.

“He’s better prepared than the [Antonio] Palocci,” he says, referring to Lula’s former finance minister.

“Haddad was mayor of the fourth largest budget in Brazil, he has a master’s degree in economics, a person who travels both in the economic and political spheres. Which is the best thing in the current moment of institutional tension.”

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