The General Rapporteur for the Budget, Deputy Hugo Leal (PSD-RJ), slightly increased the minimum wage forecast for 2022, from R$1,169 to R$1,210, following a new estimate of inflation measured by the INPC (National Price Index for the Consumer). It will be the third year in a row without a real readjustment.
The readjustment bill considered a projection for the minimum made by the Ministry of Economy in November. In the substitute, however, Leal estimates an INPC of 10.18% in 2021 — which would take the minimum to a higher value, of R$ 1,211.98.
The value appears in the final opinion released at dawn this Monday (20). The initial forecast was that the text would be voted on this Monday (20), but, due to differences over values ​​for Education and amid pressure from public security for salary readjustments, the text should only be considered at the CMO (Joint Commission of Budget) this Tuesday (21).
The Constitution determines that the minimum wage must guarantee the maintenance of the worker’s purchasing power, and, therefore, the value must be corrected at least for inflation. Currently, the minimum wage is R$1,100.
Until 2019, the minimum wage rule provided for the correction for the previous year’s inflation (INPC) plus the real increase in GDP from two years earlier (if the latter is positive). As of 2020, there was only an increase by INPC.
Real increases in the minimum wage made in previous years represented one of the main policies for the fall in income inequality in Brazil in a decade, according to a study by researchers Niklas Engbom, from New York University, and Christian Moser, from Columbia University.
The data show that, between 1994 and 2014, the minimum wage had far-reaching effects and represented at least a third of the 25.9-point drop in income variation, according to the study, based on national surveys such as the PME (Monthly Employment Survey) and the PNAD (Continuous National Household Survey) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
In spite of that, the increase in the minimum wage demands more public resources — since it is used, for example, in the expenses with pensions.
Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) stated in 2020 that granting a greater increase in the minimum wage would lead to layoffs and condemn people to unemployment. According to the minister, it is necessary to “be careful” with the time to make this type of adjustment.
“You’re in the middle of a terrible employment crisis, everybody’s unemployed. If you give them a pay raise, you’re going to condemn people to unemployment. So we have to be careful,” he said at the time.
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