Nubank shares retreat 8.8% and are below the IPO value

After a very positive start, with an increase of 31.6% only in the first two trading sessions, Nubank shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange (Nyse), in the United States, have been going through days of intense volatility.

With the feeling of greater risk aversion due to the new omicron variant of the coronavirus, adding to investors’ questions about the future profitability of the operation, fintech shares had a devaluation of 8.78% this Monday, quoted at US$ 8 .94 (R$51), below the value of US$9 (R$51.34) per share priced in the initial offering.

On the Brazilian Stock Exchange, B3, the BDRs (Brazilian Depositary Receipts), receipts corresponding to a fraction of 1/6 each of the shares originally traded in the USA, the decrease was 5.03%, to R$ 8.50.

With the retreat of this second, which adds to the 17.3% fall accumulated by shares on the NYSE last week, the market value of Nubank reached US$ 41.2 billion (R$ 235.04 billion), against US$ 45.1 billion (R$ 257.29 billion) at the close of Friday (17), a decrease of approximately R$ 22 billion. The value was still just under the US$ 41.5 billion (R$ 236.75 billion) in which the company had been priced in the US share offering at the beginning of the month.

With the drop this week, fintech was surpassed by AmBev (US$ 41.8 billion, R$ 238.46 billion) as the third largest Brazilian company in market value.

Even so, the digital bank remains the most valuable in its sector in Latin America. Itaú Unibanco, second in the list, ended the session with US$ 34 billion (R$ 193.96 billion) of market value.

With interest rate hikes coming closer and closer to being realized by the Federal Reserve, technology businesses that are mainly based on the expectation of gains that will be achieved in the future are among those that suffer most in the market, says Thiago Lobão, founder and Executive President of Catarina Capital.

“With the variations in the cost of capital projected by global interest rates, more leveraged technology companies suffer more, as is the case with Nubank”, says the expert.

“In a macro scenario of risk aversion, the shares that fall the most are those with the highest multiples, that is, with the most stretched prices”, says Enrico Cozzolino, an analyst at Levante.

The prices at which the assets had been trading, says Cozzolino, incorporated an almost ideal base scenario for the evolution of the business in the coming months, without the uncertainties brought about by the new variants, with inflation under control and a thriving level of global activity.

“Paying much more for something that will perform in the future, in this current scenario, is not seen with good eyes”, says the Levante analyst.

From January to September 2021, the group reported a loss of US$ 99.1 million (R$ 560 million).

“Now, we are prioritizing investing in new product growth, especially in other countries where we are still starting [em busca de lucratividade]”, said David Vélez, in a video released by the company at the end of November. In addition to Brazil, the digital bank has operations in Mexico and Colombia.

“We have no doubts that Nubank’s story is very convincing. We fear, however, that the combination of its extremely high valuation with a bad market moment makes the stock a very risky bet”, writes the analysis team of BTG Pactual , in report.

In the assessment of experts, Nubank “looks much more like a bank than a software”, with intrinsic capital needs to maintain the expansion of operations. “In view of the deterioration of the macroeconomic scenario in Brazil, being prudent in 2022 may be the best strategy”, point out analysts at BTG Pactual, which has a neutral recommendation for fintech shares, with a target price of US$ 10 (R$ 57 .04) in 12 months.

Nubank shares made their debut on the New York Stock Exchange (Nyse), in the United States, on December 9th.

The shares debuted with strong appreciation in the first trading session on the American Stock Exchange, up 14.78%, to US$ 10.33 (R$ 57.39). In the first trades of the day, the movement was even more intense, when the appreciation came close to 30%.

Approximately 815,000 people invested in digital bank BDRs in Brazil, making the offer the largest number of retail investors in the local market. In addition, about 7.5 million people accepted a BDR free of charge through the NuSócios program.