Haddad wants to define the future of fuels together with Petrobras board

The future finance minister, Fernando Haddad (PT), wants to define the direction of the policy on fuels with the new board of directors of Petrobras.

One of the points to be evaluated is the PPI (Import Price Parity), a price policy practiced by Petrobras since the Michel Temer (MDB) government, which guarantees alignment with the international market.

There is still no decision taken, only the willingness of the future minister to analyze the PPI. This Wednesday (28), he met with Senator Jean Paul Prates (PT-RN), a member of the energy group in the transition and quoted to assume the presidency of the company, to discuss the matter.

During the transition, technicians raised the possibility that a truce in oil prices would create an environment in which the gradual recovery of fuels would be viable. However, the realization of this scenario depends on a number of factors.

During the campaign, the president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), criticized Petrobras’ pricing policy several times and stated that he intended to “Brazilianize” fuels.

The statements had bad repercussions and were understood as a sign of possible interference in the company.

Prates, who was part of the transition technical group, also defends the creation of a stabilization fund to soften the effects of oil price fluctuations on fuels.

The issue is on the radar of the new government because the exemption of federal taxes on diesel and gasoline ends on December 31 of this year.

If nothing is done, Lula’s third term would begin with a significant increase in the tax burden on fuel, with potential effects at pumps and on consumers’ pockets.

On the other hand, the new government is being pressured to present measures that reduce the deficit in public accounts in 2023, after obtaining approval from Congress for an increase in expenses of around R$ 169 billion. In the financial market, it is said that the shortfall could exceed R$ 200 billion.

In this context, the re-encumbrance on fuel would ensure an extra collection of R$ 52.9 billion, helping to mitigate the impact of increased spending on the public debt.

Haddad and the current Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, reached an extension of the exemption for another 30 days via MP (provisional measure), effective immediately, to avoid abruptly discontinuing the policy while the new team seeks a structural solution.

By Lula’s decision, however, the future minister asked the current government to refrain from taking any measure that would have an impact in the following years.

“We asked the current government to refrain from taking measures that would impact the next government so that we could, in January, with Petrobras’ new board, define the policy for the sector”, said Haddad this Wednesday (28) .

Behind the scenes of the current government, there is a perception of a dispute between who would sign the MP, whether President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) or Lula.

Already in the transition, there is the assessment that, even without MP on January 1st to maintain the exemption, the gas stations still have some stock of products purchased without the incidence of taxation, which would give some room for maneuver for the new government act.

Technicians say that, in theory, there is indeed this window for stocks. However, there is no guarantee that distributors and resellers will keep prices at the current level.

There is a risk that distributors are holding back sales precisely in the expectation of resuming sales at the time when taxation is resumed — a time when they could also include some price increase to expand the profit margin.

Something similar could be done by gas stations, which could take advantage of the perspective of increased load to pass on the impact sooner, even if they sell the old stock of fuel.

From a tax point of view, the taxable event is billing. According to a source, this means that any change by the PT can be made at any time in the first days of the year.