Shuttle: Brazil gains 10th position in the world in the wheat export market

With the lowest supply of wheat from Argentina and Ukraine on the international market in this 2022/23 harvest, Brazil should occupy the 10th position in the world among cereal exporters, according to analysts from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

This year, according to data released by Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade) this Monday (2), Brazilian exports reached a record 3.1 million tons, a volume well above that of 2021, when the country had placed 1.13 million tons abroad.

Exports in 2022 were concentrated in the first quarter, with exporters sending 2.18 million tons of cereal to the foreign market. The first quarter of this year should also show a good performance, since the country achieved a record harvest.

Brazil has record wheat exports, but is still dependent on the foreign market, mainly on production in Argentina. Last year, Brazilian imports totaled 5.72 million tons, with expenditures of US$ 2.1 billion, according to Secex data.

In the assessment of the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), Brazilian exports for the 2022/23 harvest will reach 3.5 million tons, surpassing those of India. The US agency considers exports from July 2022 to June 2023.

Russia, despite the war with Ukraine, leads world sales, with the possibility of placing 43 million tons on the foreign market. The European Union comes next, with 36 million, followed by Australia, which takes third place.

The weather was favorable, and the Australians will have a record harvest of 36.6 million tons, being able to export 28.5 million.

Argentina and Ukraine are the countries with the biggest problems this season. Harmed by adverse weather conditions, the productivity of wheat crops in Argentina retreats to 2008/09 levels. As a result, the crop, after having reached 22.2 million tons in 2021/22, drops to 12.5 million in 22/23.

Argentines are the main suppliers of wheat to Brazilians. In the last harvest, they placed 17.7 million tons of wheat on the international market. In this one, they will have just 7.5 million to export, according to the USDA.

Ukraine, a major player in the world wheat market, will be one of the hardest hit this season due to the war with Russia. Exports, which were 18.8 million from July 2021 to June 2022, fell to 12.5 million in the same period of this harvest.

World production and consumption does not have major changes in the 2022/23 harvest, compared to the previous one. World production stands at 781 million tons; and consumption, at 790 million.

According to the IBGE, after a record wheat harvest of 9.6 million in 2022, Brazil should harvest 8.4 million this year.

Soy Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are beginning to experience climate problems in this 2022/23 harvest, and the StoneX consultancy is revising the country’s soy production downwards by 0.8%. In the company’s evaluation, the crop is at 153.79 million tons.

Corn The ghost of the climate also affects corn production in Rio Grande do Sul. The consultancy has already reduced the estimate for the harvest in Rio Grande do Sul to 3.5 million tons, below the 5.4 million forecast in December.

Corn 2 With that, the country’s summer harvest should reach 26.9 million tons, 5.8% less than the volume expected in December. The off-season will reach 99.6 million tons, a volume 5% higher than in 2021/22.

Bean The planted area in Paraná retreats to 110.3 thousand hectares in the 2022/23 harvest, according to Deral (Department of Rural Economy). In 2020/21, it was 152.6 thousand. Soybean area rises to 5.7 million hectares this year, up from 5.59 million in 2020/21, according to data from this Tuesday (3).