Anfavea predicts a 2.2% increase in vehicle production in 2023

Despite the drop in sales on the domestic market, exports ensured a 5.4% increase in vehicle production in Brazil. The data was released this Friday (6) by Anfavea (association of automakers), which also revealed its projections for 2023.

2.368 million units were assembled in 2022. The number includes passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks.

The association’s calculations indicate that 2.421 million passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks should leave the assembly lines this year. This is an increase of 2.2% compared to 2022.

The entity also expects that 2.168 million units will be registered throughout the year, which would mean a growth of 3% compared to 2022. Factors such as an improvement in the supply of parts and repressed demand contribute to optimism, albeit contained.

It is a very different forecast from that made by Fenabrave. The reseller representative believes that sales will rise by just 0.1% this year, impacted by the global economic slowdown and restrictions on access to credit.

While sales of light and heavy vehicles fell by 0.7% in the comparison between 2021 and 2022, exports grew by 27.8% in the same period. 480.9 thousand vehicles were sent abroad.

Argentina, which accounted for 35% of Brazil’s exports in 2021, saw that figure drop to 29% last year.

“When you think of Argentina and Brazil, you think of a single market. This imbalance is an important issue”, said Márcio de Lima Leite, president of Anfavea.

Inventories remain stable. There are 187,900 vehicles available at dealerships and in the factory yards, enough to cover 26 days of sales.

The level of employment remained stable between 2021 and 2022. December of last year ended with 102,400 employees at automakers, an increase of 1.4% compared to the same month of the previous year.

There were, however, major changes over these years, with impacts from the closure of Ford, Mercedes and Toyota factories.

There have been reallocations and there are still labor agreements in progress, and other results of these changes should appear throughout 2023.

The year will be positively impacted by the start of work at the Chinese factory

GWM in Iracemápolis (inland São Paulo) and the probable agreement between Ford, BYD and the government of Bahia. There are advanced plans for the acquisition of the Camaçari complex.

With the arrival of the new government —and with the recreation of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce, a portfolio assumed by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)—, Anfavea presented its priority agenda for 2023.

Anfavea is excited about the return of the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce. “Minister Alckmin’s first speech was fantastic, he spoke about semiconductors and reindustrialization, but it remains to be seen whether we will have speed in implementing the tax reform”, said Lima Leite.

He assesses that the vice president was “the best name for the job”.

The entity’s president also stated that the most important thing is to have a dialogue with the government. Association representatives have already participated in a dinner with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT).

For José Maurício Andreta Júnior, president of Fenabrave, the return of the ministry can only be evaluated after the start of work. “I think this change still needs to be felt. Let’s wait for the first steps and wait for the team, but I see it with good eyes [a volta do ministério].”

According to Márcio de Lima Leite, the reduction of production and commercialization costs are essential for the growth of the sector.

“You can’t imagine a market in which more than 70% of sales are made in cash. Three years ago, it was the opposite”, said the Executive.

Another point mentioned is the signing of new bilateral agreements, to make Brazil more attractive to receive new vehicle and component factories, in addition to expanding export potential.

“We have to be aware that when we present our plans, they need to be competitive,” stated Leite.

Reducing tax costs and encouraging research are also on the association’s agenda.

In addition to disclosing the expected numbers for the sector, Anfavea presented its new logo.

The previous design, which highlighted the silhouette of a jalopy, was replaced by a design that, according to the association, refers to technology and mobility. The outline of the old cart, however, is still present.