Davos starts with fear of global recession and Brazil looking for a turnaround

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The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum starts this Monday (16) in Davos with snow, expectations and a strong fear of a global recession on the part of the high representatives of governments and companies that make the city in the Swiss Alps their meeting point every January.

For Brazil, represented by ministers Fernando Haddad (Finance) and Marina Silva (Environment), it is the chance to try to sell the country as a safe and attractive destination for foreign investors amid the reorganization of global chains, affected by the War in Ukraine , almost three years of the pandemic and the combination of inflation and economic slowdown in the main economies of the planet.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da SIlva (PT), celebrated in Davos in his participation 20 years ago, declined the invitation to make his first international visits to neighboring Argentina and Uruguay next week.

According to advisors from the Ministry of Economy, Haddad intends to convey the message that the Lula government, sworn in two weeks ago, is “committed to a new fiscal framework”, with economic responsibility and with environmental issues, a growing demand from the forum and the international economic system.

With the January 8 coup attacks in Brasilia by supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the demand for talks with the Brazilian government grew. Haddad, according to advisers, wants to certify foreign representatives that the institutions in the country are solid and are not threatened by the serious episode.

The minister also intends to better explore, between panels, events with executives and bilateral meetings, the fiscal package proposal that he presented last week and with which he intends to promote an adjustment of R$ 242.7 billion (economists consulted by Folha consider half of this feasible amount) after the fiscal bomb left by the previous government. He will only participate in the first three days of the meeting.

Marina, in turn, was presented by the forum with great reverence and should deal mainly with the Amazon, a point of external concern throughout the Bolsonaro government. She and Haddad will have a special panel at the event this Tuesday afternoon (9 am in Brasilia time), in addition to other debates with local actors, such as the presidents of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, and Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso.

In addition to the lean federal delegation, the governors Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), Helder Barbalho (MDB-PA) and Eduardo Leite (PSDB-RS) will be at the forum with a similar intention.

“We are going to Davos to show the state’s potential to the world, seeking investments that can provide even more growth for São Paulo”, says Tarcísio, who is due to arrive this Sunday. “In addition, we are going to present in this first international mission a modern development agenda with sustainable bases, reinforcing our commitment to the role of the Green Agenda.”

At the head of multilateral organizations, Ilan Goldfajn (International Development Bank) and Marcos Troyjo (New Development Bank, the “BRICs bank”), will also be at the meeting.

In its 53rd edition, after a year with only virtual meetings and another in which the events were transferred to May and had a smaller quorum, the event idealized by economist Klaus Schwab in 1971 expects 30 heads of state and government (mainly European) and the leaders of the main multilateral organizations, in addition to 53 Ministers of Economy and hundreds of business leaders, social entrepreneurs, activists, academics and journalists.

The theme that should govern the approximately 450 sessions for 2,700 participants in the five days of the event in the small Swiss town is “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”.

According to the organization, it is an incentive for dialogue and cooperation at a time when “multiple crises divide societies and fragment the geopolitical scenario”. “Leaders need to deal with the immediate and crucial needs of the population while laying the foundations for a more sustainable and resilient world by the end of this decade”, says a note from the forum.

Translating, the event aims to bring together key figures in the global theater to deal with current crises —notably the fear of an imminent global recession — and perennial ones (mainly the environment). The energy scenario and the dilemma faced with the environmental threat are particularly worrying.

The 2023 Global Risk Perception Survey, produced annually by the forum and for which more than 1,200 experts were consulted, showed concern about recrudescent risks such as inflation, cost of living crises, trade wars, capital outflows from emerging markets, social unrest widespread, geopolitical clashes and the specter of nuclear war, accelerated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in full European territory, which in February will complete one year.

Added to this are high levels of debt, low growth, falling investment and deglobalization, the decline in human development after decades of progress, the unrestricted advance in the use of technologies (both civilian and military) and the growing pressure of the impacts of climate change. as “relatively new” factors being amplified.

The two scenarios, says the study, converge to form a single one, classified as “turbulent”: “the next decade will be characterized by environmental and social crises, driven by underlying geopolitical and economic trends”.

Global risks according to the 2023 Global Risk Perception Survey

in two years

  1. cost of living crisis
  2. Natural disasters and extreme weather events
  3. geoeconomic confrontation
  4. Failure to mitigate climate change
  5. Erosion of social cohesion and polarization
  6. Large scale environmental damage
  7. Failure to adapt to climate change
  8. Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity
  9. Natural resource crises
  10. Large-scale involuntary migration

in ten years

  1. Failure to mitigate climate change
  2. Failure to adapt to climate change
  3. Natural disasters and extreme weather events
  4. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
  5. Large-scale involuntary migration
  6. Natural resource crises
  7. Erosion of social cohesion and polarization
  8. Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity
  9. geoeconomic confrontation
  10. Large scale environmental damage

Who goes to Davos

  • Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission
  • Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General
  • Olaf Schölz, Chancellor of Germany
  • Liu He, Vice Premier of China
  • Yun Suk Yeol, President of South Korea
  • Gustavo Preto, President of Colombia
  • Guillermo Lasso, President of Ecuador
  • Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa
  • John Kerry, US Government Climate Representative
  • Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF
  • Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO
  • Ilan Goldfajn, President of the Inter-American Development Bank
  • Marcos Troyjo, President of the New Development Bank (BRICs)
  • Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General
  • Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State (by video)

Brazilians

  • Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance
  • Marina Silva, Minister of the Environment
  • Tarcisio de Freitas, Governor of Sao Paulo
  • Helder Barbalho, governor of Pará
  • Eduardo Leite, Governor of Rio Grande do Sul
  • Tasso Azevedo, founder of MapBiomas
  • Carlos Nobre, researcher and environmental specialist
  • Flavio Augusto Aguiar de Souza, CEO of Itaú BBVA
  • Octavio Lazari, CEO of Bradesco, and Luiz Carlos Trabuco Cappi, chairman of the board
  • André Esteves, CEO of BTG Pactual
  • José Auriemo Neto, CEO of JHSF
  • Eduardo Bartolomeo, CEO of Vale
  • Gilberto Tomazonu, Global CEO of JBS
  • Luciano Huck, presenter
  • Nizan Guanaes, publicist and adviser to JHSF
  • Luana Génot, Founder and Executive Director of Instituto Identidades do Brasil
  • Ilona Szabó de Carvalho, president of the Igarapé Institute

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