Census delays and IBGE expects to release final result in April

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) said this Thursday (2) that it intends to release definitive results of the 2022 Demographic Census next April.

To finalize the survey, marked by delays, the institute tries to reduce the refusals of part of the population to receive the census takers.

“After six months in the field, one of the main challenges for completing the 2022 Census is the high number of refusals to respond to the questionnaire. In the country, the average rate reaches 2.43%, in data updated on the last day of January” , stated the IBGE.

“This percentage is considerably higher in locations where there is a greater population concentration. In São Paulo, which leads the ranking among the states, the refusal rate is 4.49%, which is equivalent to around 720 thousand households in which the resident refused to provide information to the IBGE,” he added.

The body has already highlighted on other occasions that there is a risk of fines for anyone who denies providing statistical data, which are protected by secrecy.

Started in August, the collection of Census information was expected to be concluded in three months, until October of last year.

The work, however, already takes twice the initial estimate. Throughout the research, the IBGE reported difficulties in hiring and keeping census takers in the field.

Some of these workers, hired on a temporary basis, complained about late payments and lower-than-expected amounts. There were withdrawals and the threat of a strike during the collection.

This Thursday, the IBGE said that the coverage of the census tracts (spaces dividing the territory) was practically completed in January.

In February and March, the institute plans to proceed with the review process, quality control and verification of the Census. At this stage, for example, attempts are made to reverse refusals and return visits to homes with absent residents.

“The forecast is that the IBGE will publish the definitive results of the Census referring to the population of the municipalities in April 2023”, said the agency.

In December, the institute had signaled that it intended to publish the data in March.

Since the beginning of the operation, on August 1st, until January 31st, 185.8 million people in the country were registered. The contingent represents about 89.45% of the population calculated in the Census preview (207.8 million people), released in December.

The previous result was published due to IBGE’s need to forward population data to the TCU (Union Court of Auditors). The transfer marks the calculations of the FPM (Municipal Participation Fund), source of funds for the municipalities.

The methodology used, however, was challenged in court by municipalities that lost population with partial statistics and, consequently, fund revenues.

In January, Minister Ricardo Lewandowski, of the STF (Federal Supreme Court), granted an injunction restoring the previous division of resources.

In Census years, data from the census itself is sent to the TCU. But, as the 2022 collection will only be completed in 2023, the institute had to adapt the methodology of the preview, using projections to complement the results obtained in households up to December 25th.

In years without a Census, the IBGE shares the so-called population estimates with the TCU. These projections follow a trend model based on data from the last completed Census – in this case, it would be 2010.

The number of Brazilians already registered corresponds to 87.11% of the estimated population released in 2021 (213.3 million).