By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

“We close 2022 with a reduction in the primary deficit from 5% of GDP in 2021 to something around 1.3%-1.5% in 2022.” Christos Staikouras said on Real Fm, predicting the markets for a major surprise on April 24 when Eurostat will also announce the final… fiscal control of the country.

Knowing the facts as well as the minister himself who likes to set the bar low, it will not be a surprise if eventually the Eurostat announces for 2022 a primary deficit closer to 1.2% or even lower. In other words, as much as the 2022 budget provided when it was passed in December 2021 and before it had to be revised by the successive packages of support measures for households and businesses.

From December 2021 and to deal with the health and fiscal crisis, the government received €9.2 billion of additional measures, each time revising the deficit target:

-2% in the Stability Program

-1.7% in the draft Budget 2023

-1.6% in the proposed 2023 Budget

An announcement from Eurostat – between the 2 polls if we take as a baseline scenario the first election on April 9th ​​- of a much better final result (1.2% deficit means a benefit of €900m against the target) would give credibility points to the government abroad even if it would have no effect on the voters.

The figures that show that Christos Staikouras is conservative in his estimates speak of €10 billion more tax revenue in 2022 compared to 2021. And to this should be added a significant part of the January and February revenue where a significant increase is also observed here in relation to the objectives but we still do not have the final data at our disposal.

The increase in GDP and the increase in employment meant more receipts from taxes and levies, tourism did extremely well as did investments, e-transactions increased even more and an additional €1.5bn comes from inflation and accuracy.

With this money, the government took approximately €9.2 billion in support measures for households and businesses, both extraordinary – fuel pass, power pass, market pass, electricity bill subsidies, Christmas and Easter benefits – and permanent with reductions in taxes and insurance contributions. And at the same time, he kept a cellar so that there would be a better-than-estimated fiscal result that would be used as a “weapon” to recover the coveted investment grade.