By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

The week that begins ushers in 25 days of tumultuous economic developments, the significance of which would have been very different if the Tempe rail tragedy had not occurred.

Tomorrow, ELSTAT is expected to announce the growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022 and therefore for the whole year. An announcement that is expected by the financial staff as it will determine the fiscal result of the year and the amount of the fiscal “surprise” that the government is preparing for the markets and about which we have written.

Until Friday, March 10, Kostis Hatzidakis must make his proposal for the increase in the minimum wage, which will take effect from May Day. The basic scenario calls for the minimum wage to be around €780, while the scenario of €800 with a reduction in contributions is less likely.

Also pending in the Ministry of Finance are provisions such as the revival of debt arrangements, the extension until the end of the year of the reduced VAT and monthly traffic taxes which, like the decision on the minimum wage, were supposed to go ahead last week but were pushed back due to of the Tempe tragedy.

March 13, ELSTAT announces February inflation, in the wake of Eurostat’s announcements that Greece had the 4th lowest rate in the Eurozone.

In the middle of the month, the first February budget execution figures will be released to show whether the exceptional January was just the beginning.

On March 16, the ECB will announce its 6th increase in key interest rates from July 2022, likely by 50 basis points.
A day later, on March 17th, the assessment of the Greek economy is expected from Moody’s, which remains the most skeptical of the big 3, keeping Greece 3 steps below the investment grade. An upgrade that would reduce the distance from the rest of the houses would be music to the government’s ears.

Within the month, the country must submit a request to the Commission for the granting of loans of €5 billion under REPowerEU. The approval of the loans – for which plans and actions to which the money will be directed must be presented – is a condition for the subsequent approval of the subsidies. Tempi has complicated the timing of the elections, however the goal remains that the request for subsidies be submitted before the elections.

Contacts with the Commission will take place towards the end of the month and in the context of the second post-programmatic supervision, which is also linked to the country’s obligation to submit the MDP for the period 2024-2026 based on the fiscal guidelines that Brussels will have given to the Eurogroup of March 14.