By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

H natural gas price slump continues.

It fell yesterday to €35.4/Mwh, price that we have been seeing since January 2, 2022, almost 50 days before the Russian boot steps on Ukrainian soil again.

It is characteristic that only in the first 5 months of 2023 the de-escalation exceeds €46 or 56.5% and if the estimates of a portion of analysts for a price of €10 turn out to be true, then it can reach 90%.

And if one sees the future contracts for the coming winter, the prices range between €52-57/Mwh but much more manageable compared to last winter when they reached €140.

In fact, some in Brussels consider them so manageable that they are not content only with the smiles of relief and satisfaction that their steep decline certainly causes, but consider them a return to normalcy despite the fact that prices between €52-57/Mwh they remain triple compared to the pre-war period and are of course unmanageable by households and businesses.

And for this reason they are pushing for the gradual lifting of support measures against the energy crisis with the agreement of both the IMF and the European Central Bank.

All this for our country is not theoretical.

Greece has submitted a request to Brussels to extend the subsidy mechanism for household and business electricity bills, which normally expires in July.

The extension request is until the end of the year regardless of whether subsidies will be needed or not.

The situation has improved so much that for the months of May and June the subsidies are in the order of 1.5 cents/kilowatt hour.

At the moment nothing shows that the Greek request will not be accepted, but it is of great importance whether the green light will concern the mechanism as it is or changes will be requested that will limit the number of beneficiaries

The only thing that is certain is that if things do not go as desired and increased subsidies are needed for the winter, money (will) be available.

The budget for 2023 has been structured with an average gas price of €120/Mwh and in this period we are less than 1/3.

Given that last year we supplied 55 million Mwh, our calculations give a saving of around €4.7 billion which directly affects the GDP.

Here we must also add the benefit resulting from the reduction in oil prices.

The price of black gold so far has not exceeded $90 for a single day, which is also the acceptance price for the Greek budget, and on the contrary, most of these first 5 months are around $75-77.

So everything shows that just from the drop in energy prices – I’m not including tourism, investment, consumption – the revised estimate for a growth rate of 2.3% will also prove to be quite conservative.

And therefore more resources for the government that will emerge from the elections to manage.