The prospects of the fundamental sizes of Greek banks remain intact, as pointed out by major international investment houses.

The tremors caused worldwide in the banking sector since the beginning of March have tested the resilience of Greek banks, more from the perspective of the climate than from that of fundamental sizes. However, these tremors led to a sell off that exceeded 20% around Greek banks in March. With markets now calmer and confidence in the European banking system gradually restored, visibility on the profitability side has improved again, which was also reflected in the significant recovery of the banking index from the “bottom” recorded in March.

Everyone agrees that Greek banks are currently in a position to absorb any shocks from the international markets. Banks have cleaned up their balance sheets. Red loans from 44%. today they have fallen to 8%. Banks maintain capital adequacy ratios well above the minimum threshold and have of course returned to profitability after a series of loss-making years.

The bank index from the lows of March 20, 2023 has recovered by about 13.49%. The largest upward reaction was registered by the share of Piraeus (+20.31%), followed by National Bank (+14.62%), Eurobank (+14.11%) and Alpha Bank (+7.67%).

The Greek banks also certify with their quarterly results that Piraeus and Alpha Bank have already published that they are capital protected, with a healthy portfolio, improved net interest income and ultimately strong profitability, which is expected to continue throughout the year.


The Bank of Greece expresses satisfaction with the improvement of capital adequacy and the reduction of “red” loans. However, the central bank warns due to international turmoil and risks in the real estate market. The percentage of non-performing loans in total loans (December 2022: 8.7%) decreased, but remains significantly higher than the corresponding European average. Bank actions should therefore continue in order to achieve further convergence. The return of banks to profitability in 2022 is a positive development, while further strengthening of organic revenues is expected in 2023 as well. The capital adequacy of banking groups strengthened significantly in 2022, mainly due to the increase in banks’ regulatory capital.

Morgan Stanley

With reference to the Greek banks, Morgan Stanley states that for this year they are the preferred “play” among the banks of the CEEMEA region (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa) for the following reasons:

-Consolidation of the balance sheet resulting in a single-digit NPE ratio for all four Greek banks from the 4th quarter of ’22,

-Increase in loans due to the macroeconomic recovery, the recovery of Foreign Direct Investments and the EU recovery funds in the medium term,

-High sensitivity of NIMs (net interest margins) to ECB interest rate hikes, given the high proportion of floating rate loans and demand deposit driven funding.

-Asset quality continues to show resilience.

The American house sets an “overweight” recommendation on Eurobank’s stock, increasing the target price to 1.55 euros (baseline scenario) from 1.37 euros previously, while in the “baseline scenario” the price reaches 1.90 euros (from 1.82 euros).

Morgan Stanley for Alpha Bank gives an “outperform recommendation” with a target price of 1.44 (from 1.37 euros) in the base scenario, and 1.70 (from 1.67) in the upside scenario.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that Greek banks have some of the strongest liquidity reserves in the eurozone, while predicting that the sector’s NPE ratio will fall to 5% this year and 3.5% in 2024. It raises the target prices of all four Greek banks. In particular, the new target price for Alpha Bank is at 1.70 euros from 1.60 euros before, for Eurobank at 1.55 euros from 1.40 euros before, for National Bank at 6.20 euros from 5.40 euros before and for Piraeus to 2.75 euros from 2.20 euros

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank declares “Bull” for Greek banks and upgrades them, setting a systemic buy recommendation for all 4. For Piraeus, he gives a target price of 2.95 euros (from 1.8 euros), for Eurobank, with a target price of 1.7 euros (from 1.45 euros), for Alpha Bank 1.6 euros (from 1.55 euros) and for the National team 6.15 euros (from 5.1 euros). The house forecasts double-digit average profitability this year of 10.8% and 10.5% for 2024 and estimates that they will pay a dividend with the average dividend yield being high and now forecast at 4.1% and 6.2% for 2024 outlook. Earnings multipliers average 5.4 now.


HSBC remains with “buy” recommendations for all four banks with target prices of 6.75 euros for National Bank, 3.35 euros for Piraeus, 1.45 euros for Alpha Bank and 1.60 euros for Eurobank. Greek banks look attractive at 0.55x P/TBV, 20% lower than emerging markets and 25% lower than European banks.

Eurobank Equities

Eurobank Equities argues that Greek banks enjoy a combination of strong liquidity (LCR coverage ratio at 200%, among the highest in the EU), healthy capital buffers (CET 1 ratios at 14.9%) and a commercial real estate CRE portfolio that carries less risk than in other markets, believes that the very positive outlook for the sector remains intact. He estimates that the distribution of dividends will begin in 2023, with National Bank making the beginning, and in 2024 Alpha Bank and Piraeus will follow. It sets target prices at 1.66 euros for Alpha Bank, 5.90 euros for National Bank and 3.24 euros for Piraeus.