Brazilian economic activity resumed growth in November after four consecutive declines and at the strongest pace since February, pointing to some recovery at the end of 2021, according to data from the Central Bank.
The IBC-Br (Economic Activity Index) rose 0.69% in November compared to October, according to seasonally adjusted data reported by the Central Bank this Monday (17th).
The result was the first in the blue since June, and the strongest since the 1.67% rise seen in February 2021. The November figure was above expectations in a Reuters poll of a 0.65% advance.
The BC also revised upward the October result to a drop of 0.28%, from the 0.4% decrease previously reported.
Despite the positive result in November, the IBC-Br data show a swing in economic performance, with five months showing positive results and six months, with monthly declines.
In the September 2020 comparison, the IBC-Br recorded an increase of 0.43%, while in the 12-month period it increased by 4.30%, according to observed numbers.
The advance of vaccination against Covid-19 favored the Brazilian economy, especially the service sector, but the scenario has been impacted by very high inflation, which led the BC to intensify the increase in interest rates, taking the Selic to the current 9.25 %, which restricts growth.
The IPCA closed 2021 with an accumulated increase of 10.06%, strongly bursting the ceiling of the official objective, which was 3.75% with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
This amid interruptions in the global supply chain and lack of raw materials, some of the reasons that led the national industry to show a drop in production in November for the sixth consecutive month.
But the latest retail and service data helped improve the outlook for the end of 2021.
Supermarket sales helped retail in Brazil register unexpected growth in November of 0.6%, while the volume of services advanced 2.4%, much more than expected.
The Focus survey carried out by the BC with a hundred economists points out that the expectation is that GDP will have grown 4.50% in 2021, going to 0.29% in 2022.
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