Gasoline rises at pumps for second week in a row

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​With the transfer to the pumps of the readjustments announced by Petrobras on the 11th, the average price of gasoline rose 0.8% last week. The liter of diesel increased by 2.9%, according to data from the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels).

It is the second rise in a row for gasoline after eight consecutive weeks of decline, a scenario that worries the government due to the risk of contamination of the electoral debate. Prices should still be pressured by the end of the ICMS freeze on fuels, debated by the states.

According to the ANP, the liter of gasoline was sold last week at R$6,664, on average. Diesel oil, on the other hand, reached an average of R$ 5,582 per liter in the country. The ANP survey analyzes amounts charged at gas stations across the country.

Fuels recorded a high level amid the recovery of oil prices in the international market. Last week, the commodity reached the highest level since 2014.

The behavior of oil causes impacts in Brazil because it is taken into account by Petrobras when defining the prices of derivatives in refineries. Another factor with a strong influence on prices is the depreciated exchange rate.

On the 11th, Petrobras announced increases of 4.85% in the price of gasoline and of 8% in the price of diesel. Since the week before the readjustments, the price of gasoline has accumulated high at the pumps of 1%. Already diesel rose 4.45% in the period.

The ANP also detected an increase in the price of CNG (vehicle natural gas), which went from R$4.435 to R$4.456 per cubic meter, as a result of the readjustments made to the sale price of natural gas after the end of contracts between Petrobras and state distributors.

Already the prices of hydrated ethanol and gas cylinders were stable in the week. The first was sold, on average, at R$ 5,053 per litre. The 13 kilo cylinder, most used in homes, had an average price of R$ 102.53.

The soaring of fuels has been a matter of concern for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). In 2021, it helped push official inflation to a high of 10.06%, the highest since 2015. The rise in inflation was driven by the transport group, which, in turn, reflected the scarcity of products such as gasoline.

Under pressure, the federal government announced a PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) to authorize the temporary reduction of taxes on fuel and electricity, in an attempt to relieve consumers’ pockets in an election year.

If the government eliminates PIS/Cofins rates on gasoline, diesel and ethanol, the impact on revenue will be in the range of BRL 50 billion per year, according to government sources informed to leaf.

The project also plans to release all entities of the federation to reduce the tax burden on fuels, including the ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços), with great weight in the coffers of the states.

The measure is seen as a way of putting pressure on governors, who have become targets of Bolsonaro’s criticism over the past few months. The president even blamed the ICMS for the fuel cost, an idea contested by the states.

Amid the clash with Bolsonaro, state finance secretaries decided, in October, to freeze the amount of ICMS charged on fuel sales. The measure was approved at the time for a period of 90 days, between the beginning of November and the end of January.

The ICMS rate charged by the states is levied on the so-called PMPF (Weighted Average Price to the Final Consumer) of fuels. This value, unchanged until January, is usually defined from a price survey at gas stations every 15 days.

This month, states began to discuss ending the freeze. If the proposal is approved, the price of gasoline could rise to R$0.027 per liter in São Paulo, for example.

“The states made their contribution to reducing the volatility of fuel prices, which was not done by Petrobras or the federal government”, said on January 14 the president of Comsefaz (National Committee of Finance Secretaries of the ), Rafael Fonteles, who is secretary of Piauí, governed by Wellington Dias (PT).​

On different occasions, Bolsonaro has also criticized Petrobras’ pricing policy, which takes into account oil prices on the international market and the variation of the dollar to define the level of fuel in refineries.

In November, the president of the state-owned company, Joaquim Silva e Luna, said that “it is not correct” to attribute the increase in fuel prices to the company. Petrobras argues that it follows market prices and that eventual distortions could drive away investments and generate supply risks.

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