Black Friday should be stronger in supermarkets

Out of smartphones, in supermarkets. Given the economic crisis that Brazil is going through, economists estimate that the 2021 Black Friday should be marked by the purchase of essential items, such as food and cleaning and personal hygiene products.

The situation is different from what happened in previous years, when consumers took advantage of the date to buy more expensive items, especially imported ones, such as cell phones and electronics in general.

Economist Cristina Helena Pinto de Mello, professor at PUC-SP, explains that inflation –which is at 10.25% in the last 12 months– is one of the factors that could make this year’s Black Friday less attractive, since it reduces the purchasing power of the population. The lack of prospects for an improvement in the economy and uncertainty are also likely to cause a contraction in spending, he says.

“This current scenario makes me think that people tend to buy more essentials. Today they even sell detergent on Black Friday.” In her opinion, this search for essential products can help make the trade have results close to those registered last year.

“It won’t be the Black Friday of the smartphone, as we’ve seen in other years. Even if merchants take or even reduce profit margins, the cost of the product itself is too high,” says economist Juliana Inhasz, a professor at Insper . The rise in the dollar is another factor that should cause demand for electronics to decline.

Despite the bad scenario of the Brazilian economy this year, Juliana believes that retail sales on Black Friday in 2021 are a little better than in 2020. “The situation compared to last year is better because people need to buy more things. Many people were at home and not buying,” he says.

On the other hand, the Insper professor assesses that the performance of trade this year should be a little lower than that of 2019, when the country was not yet experiencing the pandemic and, therefore, there were no restrictions on trade.

Economist Josilmar Cordenonssi, economics professor at Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, assesses a trend that the service sector has better results than trade in this year’s edition.

“Until last year, when people were more closed at home, those who had income channeled spending more to products, shopping in e-commerce. Now, with the reopening, I think they will start to spend more on services, eventually on travel and going to restaurants. So, spending on products themselves can decrease a little in relation to services,” says Cordenonssi.

what the associations say

The economic advisor of FecomercioSP (Federation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo) Altamiro Carvalho assesses that the numbers for the 2021 Black Friday will be better than those of last year.

In his assessment, the economy has already shown signs of recovery compared to last year. “We cannot fail to take into account contingencies such as political uncertainties, inflation, unemployment, a series of other things. What we have is a slight trend that the numbers for this third quarter, including Black Friday and Christmas, are higher than 2020”, it says.

Economist Marcel Solimeo, from the São Paulo Trade Association, estimates a real increase (discounted for inflation) of between 5% and 6% in trade revenues in the city of São Paulo on Black Friday this year compared to 2019.

Solimeo agrees with the thesis that the sale of essential items can help improve the sector’s performance this year. “Black Friday is becoming widespread and taking not only supermarkets, but also pharmacies. This can help increase sales volume.”

Promotions in supermarkets

Large supermarket chains in the country are already planning promotions for Black Friday, which, this year, will be held on November 26th.

Assaí will participate in the event for the fifth consecutive year. The company says it focuses on food and essential products, such as cleaning and personal hygiene. “Therefore, naturally, the greatest focus on promotions will be on these items. However, the company also sells some bazaar, automotive, pet and appliance items that will have products participating in Black Friday, as well as those aimed at the corporate customer (such as packaging and disposables )”, says the company.

At GPA, there will be promotions on the Pão de Açúcar, Mercado Extra, Extra Hiper, Mini Extra and Minuto Pão de Açúcar networks, in addition to the e-commerce PaodeAcucar.com and ClubeExtra.com.br and the Pão de Açúcar Mais and Clube Extra apps. According to the company, throughout the month of November there will be specific offers.

“All the chains prepare promotions in categories that cover the entire assortment, including, yes, food items, beverages, cleaning products, personal care and hygiene. At Extra Hiper, in addition to categories focused on food, beverages, cleaning products and The entire assortment, we will also have activations focused on bazaar, electronics and household appliances. At Pão de Açúcar, the offers are on products in key categories for the brand, such as wines, beverages, barbecue items, spirits, products for babies, among others,” says the GPA. According to the company, discounts could reach 70%.

Carrefour informs that it will have offers “both non-food items: electronics, bazaar, textiles, among others – as well as food. The percentages of discounts were not informed. The company also stated that the offers will reach all the group’s retail businesses , such as Carrefour Hiper, Carrefour Bairro, Carrefour Market, Carrefour Express, carrefour.com.br and the Meu Carrefour app.

Black Friday in times of crisis

• With the scenario of instability in the Brazilian economy, this year’s Black Friday should have a change in the consumption pattern of customers
• According to economists, the trend is for consumers to take advantage of offers to buy products they need for their daily lives and put away superfluous items
• In other words, unlike what happened in previous years, before the pandemic, the Black Friday of 2021 should not be marked by high demand for imported items, especially electronics

November 26th: is the date of Black Friday in 2021

What influences the decision of consumers

• Inflation
• Unemployment
• Exchange rate
• indebtedness level
• Interest rate
• Uncertainty about the future

Comparison with previous years

Unemployment rate:

• June to August 2019: 11.8%
• June to August 2020: 14.4%
• June to August 2021: 13.2%

Official inflation (IPCA):

Accumulated in 12 months

• Until September 2019: 2.89%
• Until September 2020: 3.14%
• Until September 2021: 10.25%

Dollar:

Quotation on the first business day of November

• 2019: R$ 3,97
• 2020: R$ 5,68
• 2021: R$ 5,66

Taxa Selic

at the end of october

• 2019: 5% per year
• 2020: 2% per year
• 2021: 7.75% per year

Indebted population in the city of São Paulo

In September

• 2019: 59,9%
• 2020: 58,5%
• 2021: 69,2%

Pandemic situation in Greater São Paulo

In November

• 2020: Yellow phase: commerce could operate at 40% of its capacity and reduced hours
• 2021: Resumption phase: openness to trade and no public limit

Tips to protect yourself on Black Friday

Avoid impulse purchases

Check the real need for the acquisition and analyze your budget

monitor prices

Follow the evolution of the prices of the products you plan to buy from now on and check if, on the Black Friday date, the promotion is real

Find out about the company’s deadline policy

Find out if the store makes exchanges, in addition to checking deadlines and whether the exchange can be made in all units or in a specific one

gather evidence

Print or save documents demonstrating the offer and order confirmation

Avoid bumps

When buying online, see if the site is reliable and keep an antivirus installed and updated

Pay attention to shipping

For internet purchases, see if the shipping cost is worth it

Heads up: if the purchase is made remotely (by phone or over the internet), the customer can withdraw within seven working days from the date of purchase or delivery, with the return of all amounts paid

Sources: Central Bank, FecomercioSP (Federation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism of the State of São Paulo), Government of São Paulo, IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Procon-SP and report