Government sees casualties in the PDT and PSB in the PEC dos Precatórios, but expects more votes from the centrão

The government assesses that it will lose votes from opposition parties in the next stage of voting for the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatório, which allows for the expansion of public spending and makes it possible to expand the Auxílio Brasil to R$400 monthly promised by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) in election year.

The basic text of the bill was approved, in the first round, at dawn on Thursday (3) by the Chamber with a tight scoreboard. There were 312 votes in favor of the proposal, 144 against and 57 deputies did not vote. It takes 308 votes for the PEC to receive the approval of the House, in a vote in two rounds.

The support of dissident opposition deputies, mainly from the PDT and PSB, was crucial to the narrow-margin victory for the Palácio do Planalto. The PDT gave 15 votes in favor of the PEC, and the PSB, 10.

This provoked a split in the PDT, triggering the announcement that Ciro Gomes has decided to temporarily suspend the pre-candidacy for the 2022 presidential race. In the PSB, which is sewing an alliance with the PT for next year’s elections, the betrayals are trying to be reversed.

Members of the Palácio do Planalto and government allies in the Chamber, therefore, are already working with the scenario that pressure from opposition parties will reduce the votes in these benches in the next PEC votes — the first round has yet to be concluded and then analyzed the proposal in the second round in the plenary of the House.

However, Bolsonaro’s organizers expect an increase in votes from the center and center-right parties.

Among the deputies who did not vote in the first round, the government calculates that there are potential votes in the DEM, MDB, PSDB, PP, PSL and Republicans.

About 30 deputies of these acronyms did not take a stand last week. The evaluation of Planalto’s allies is that around 20 would vote with the government if they were in the plenary.

This, then, should make up for the loss of support in opposition parties. Government officials do not believe that pressure from the PDT and PSB summits will have an effect on the majority of the 25 votes for these acronyms.

The next PEC votes in the Chamber are scheduled to start this Tuesday (9). But the government will assess the quorum at the session before putting the proposal under review. The objective is to avoid the risk of defeat given the narrow margin of support for the text.

In addition, it will be necessary to calculate the impact of the decision of Minister Rosa Weber, of the STF (Supreme Federal Court), which determined the suspension of parliamentary amendments (rapporteur’s amendments) used in political negotiations between the Palácio do Planalto and Congress.

These amendments are instruments for deputies and senators to send resources from the federal budget for projects in their electoral bases.

Currently, the main bargaining chip is known as the draftsman’s amendment. The money available this year is R$ 16.8 billion. About R$ 1 billion was released on the eve of the vote on the base text, in the first round, in the plenary of the Chamber.

Weber’s preliminary decision will begin to be judged by the plenary of the STF on Tuesday. Therefore, part of the government’s allied base prefers to postpone the next PEC votes, scheduled for this week. There is still no decision on the postponement.

The government is in a hurry to approve the proposal in the Chamber and, soon after, in the Senate, where it also needs to go through two rounds.

Bolsonaro determined, in October, the increase of Auxílio Brasil to R$ 400, triggering a crisis between the political and economic wings of the government.

The solution to meet the president’s demand was to circumvent the spending ceiling, proposing a change in the calculation of the fiscal rule in the PEC dos Precatórios. This PEC, which was already in the Chamber, provides for a limit for payment of court orders (debts of the Union recognized by the courts), which frees up more space in the Budget.

The two changes provided for in the PEC —involving the spending ceiling and court orders— have the potential to open a gap of more than R$ 90 billion next year, guaranteeing resources for Auxílio Brasil, aid for truck drivers and offsetting the increase in expenses related to the high of inflation.

The increase in spending in the social area is a bet by Bolsonaro and his allies to try to strengthen the president in the 2022 reelection race.

The vote on the base text in the first round of the PEC, however, is questioned by opponents of Bolsonaro.

Opposition parties and former president of the Chamber Rodrigo Maia (no party-RJ) have already filed requests with the STF to suspend the processing of the text.

The main argument is that the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), adopted irregular measures in last week’s session.

Allied with the government, Lira relaxed some rules and edited an act to allow deputies who are on a trip authorized by the Chamber to vote remotely. This benefits the Bolsonaro-sponsored plan.

In another setback of the government at the STF, minister Rosa Weber, rapporteur of the process on the voting of the PEC dos Precatórios, established a 24-hour period for the Chamber to provide information on the approval of the text.

This Sunday (7), the minister determined a new deadline of 24 hours for the Chamber when analyzing the lawsuit filed by Maia, which was presented on Saturday (6).

There are also questions about last-minute changes to the text that was approved.

The amendment foresees that the precatório related to the education area will be divided in three years.

However, the strategy sewn by Lira was called a maneuver by the opposition and deputies against the proposal, such as the Novo party.

Critics of the agreement argue that the change in the text of the PEC could only be made if there were any amendments (suggestion presented by parliamentarians) with the same content. According to this group, there was no way to make the last-minute change.

“Considering the high relevance of the topic under discussion, I sign a 24-hour deadline to the petitioned authorities, in order to, if they wish, provide the information they deem pertinent, before examining the request for preliminary injunction,” Weber decided.

For the OAB (Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil), the PEC represents a default. In a technical note, the entity pointed out unconstitutionalities of the proposal. The document indicates, for example, that the PEC offends the principle of separation of Powers, as the precatories are issued by the Judiciary.