By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

€6 billion is a good start to… scratch. Where €6 billion is the primary surplus of the state budget in the 9th month of the year, while… scratching naturally refers to the now famous phrase of the prime minister that he will “scrape the bottom of the barrel” to help at the end of the year the weakest in terms of precision that persists.

The announcement of the preliminary figures of the execution of the budget for the period January-September shows that if things continue like this, something will be found in December at the bottom of the barrel.

Tax revenues currently exceed the target by €3.1 billion, but this does not mean that this is the fiscal space as well. About €1.5 billion concerns last year’s collections – road tax, income tax – and increased tax refunds. The costs of the 2 supplementary budgets and its announcements should also be deducted TEF.

Obviously, it is because of a small margin of 0.1-0.2 points according to the report of skai.gr. , that is, €220-440 million. Of course, the Ministry of Finance keeps the bar low and notes that we have to wait for the results of the months of October and December to have a clear picture, especially when on Friday we have the first critical evaluation from S&P. It is estimated that at the beginning of December and a few days before the final draft of the budget is passed, the financial staff will know what they can give so that the prime minister takes the relevant decision.

Before the start of hostilities in Israel with oil on a steady downward course, the bets were rather a “check of accuracy” with beneficiaries – as in Christmas 2022 and Easter 2023 – the low pensioners of €600-800, the uninsured elderly and the beneficiaries of disability benefits.

But now things are different. Any escalation of the war in Syria and Lebanon or in the worst case scenario a direct Israel-Iran conflict will send the price of black gold soaring making government intervention in the fuel sector imperative

Of course – with food inflation remaining almost 4 times higher than headline inflation – there is always the possibility that the intervention will be about accuracy.

At the same time, the financial staff is also preparing the regulation regarding the judges’ pensions. According to information, they will not be given retroactively to the 4,000 beneficiaries as this would have a total cost of around €400-500m for the 11 years from 2012. On the contrary, the compliance will concern the increase in the judges’ pensions without yet being clarified the manner and cost of compliance. The relevant arrangement is expected to be presented to the cabinet next week.