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Green should dominate at the opening this Monday in the wake of encouraging signals on world trade. Trump said he was optimistic that a Sino-US trade deal would be signed, the outlines of which have just been negotiated by representatives of the two superpowers.
Furthermore, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Monday, October 27, that he could see a Brazil-United States trade agreement in the coming days, which could reduce customs duties imposed by Donald Trump against a backdrop of bilateral tensions. “I am convinced that within a few days, we will find a definitive solution between the United States and Brazil, so that life continues to be beautiful and joyful,” Lula told the press in Kuala Lumpur.
On Friday the CAC ended in balance, close to its zeniths, investors having been reassured by consumer prices in the United States, a major publication which was hugely delayed due to staff numbers reduced by the shutdown. Excluding food and energy prices, inflation reached 3% in September while economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expected a rate of 3.1%.
“The September inflation report confirms that increases in customs duties will have had only a limited effect on inflation in 2025 and in any case very much lower than what had been anticipated,” underlines Bastien Drut of CPR AM. “This report is also very reassuring for the other components of underlying inflation, namely housing and non-housing services, and will therefore allow the Fed (the American Federal Reserve, Editor’s note) to focus on the deterioration of the labor market. The rate cuts in October and December seem certain” he continues.
For the rest, it was the continuation of the quarterly surge of copies which animated the session. Excluding CAC 40, Maisons du Monde (+7.3%), Valeo (+10.8%) and Alten (+7.3%) performed well after publishing their third quarter activity.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the main equity indices ended the last session of the week in the green, like the Dow Jones (+1.01%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+1.15%). The S&P500, the benchmark barometer of risk appetite in the eyes of fund managers, gained 0.79% to 6,791 points.
An update on other risky asset classes: around 8:00 this morning
> On the foreign exchange market the single currency was trading at a level close to $1.1620.
> The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of the appetite for risk on the financial markets, was trading around $61.70.
> THE Treasuries 10 years, yield on federal sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years, were trading slightly above the 4.04%.
> As for the VIX, it was worth 16.37 at the last close of the S&P500.
On the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow as a priority the IFO business climate index in Germany at 10:00 a.m.
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The 8,260 points formally constitute a resistance, which would only become support in the event of a large, rapid crossing in powerful volumes, all in a significant sectoral federation
FORECAST
Considering the key graphical factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the CAC 40 index in the short term.
We will take care to note that crossing 8260.00 points would revive the buying tension. While a break of 7940.00 points would restart the selling pressure.
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