See savings, Treasury, CDB and others with the rise in the Selic rate

Fixed-income investments should have a return above inflation in 2022, considering a double-digit prime rate and inflation equivalent to just over half of that recorded in 2021, according to calculations by financial investment search engine Yubb.

The Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) raised the Selic rate by 1.5 percentage points this Wednesday (2), to 10.75% per year. By raising interest rates, the monetary authority restricts access to credit and, with less money in circulation, it hopes to slow down inflation.

As in the past year, the current scenario is favorable to investment in fixed income, when compared to variable income – such as shares traded on the Stock Exchange. But in 2021, annual inflation of 10.06% surpassed the gains of virtually all traditional domestic investments.

In this week’s Focus survey, the median of the projections of economists consulted by the BC (Central Bank) indicates an inflation in Brazil of 5.38% at the end of 2022.

This inflation estimate, added to the high Selic rate, should make even the savings account, which is the most popular investment in the country and also the one with the worst return in the fixed income segment, to produce real gains. Check out:

“The current scenario of high Brazilian interest rates tends to benefit fixed income investments to the detriment of variable income assets. This is because the higher Selic pressures credit, makes financing for companies more expensive and tends to devalue shares due to the greater discount demanded by investors”, commented Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb.

Pascowitch reinforces the importance of analyzing the remuneration of each investment in fixed income compared to inflation. “Investors tend to analyze only the nominal yield, the one that appears on the screen, but do not calculate the real yield, discounting inflation”, he says. “It is essential that there is this concern in 2022 in order to take advantage of the best opportunities”, she says.

Although the rise in interest rates is potentially harmful to the shares of companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange, Pascowitch also warns of the possibility that a drop in variable income can generate buying opportunities.

Considering that stock market investments must be planned for the long term –more than ten years–, solid companies with low prices tend to bring a higher return than fixed income over time.

According to Patrícia Palomo, director of Sonata Gestora de Patrimônio, despite the more positive performance of the Brazilian stock exchange and the real against the dollar in recent weeks, in the case of the interest rate market, bond premiums did not show similar relief, offering good opportunities for buys to investors at current levels.

“In this dynamic, assets indexed to inflation continue to be interesting for those who want to protect and build equity with a yield above inflation”, says the manager.

She adds that, as the BC maintains the monetary tightening process at the next Copom meetings, floating-rate securities, which follow the Selic variation, will continue to gain attractiveness.

“When we experience a double-digit interest rate scenario again, fixed income, which had lost its glamor, comes back with everything”, endorses Luciane Effting, executive superintendent of investments at Santander.

As investors return to low-risk fixed income public and private bonds that offer a return of around 1% per month, it is natural that they start to look with a little less enthusiasm for assets with greater risk and volatility. , says the superintendent of Santander.

“Without a doubt, we will have a very volatile year, and it is in volatility that we find opportunities”, says Luciane. “The best strategy is for the investor to know how to combine fixed income opportunities, but without forgetting to look at diversification, which can maximize the return on the portfolio”, adds the superintendent.

In the recommended portfolio of Santander Corretora shares for February, names from the financial sector, such as BTG Pactual and Itaú, and from commodities, such as JBS, Petrobras, Suzano and Vale, stand out.

“Given the scenario of economic recovery, which tends to be accelerated with the advance of mass vaccination in large economies, the shares of cyclical companies, from the ‘old economy’, which accompany economic growth, tend to be more sought after, with a tendency general appreciation in their prices”, says Paloma Brum, investment analyst at Toro.

Paloma states that, in an environment of much higher interest rates than last year, the level of risk in the granting of loans and financing grows, which naturally implies a higher premium to remunerate creditor institutions, which must experience the expansion of spreads they receive, favoring their revenues and margins.

On the other hand, she says that companies in the real estate sector tend to be among the most impacted by rising interest rates.

“Real estate financing consists of one of the lines of credit that is adjusted more quickly in the face of increases in the Selic rate. Thus, the rise in the Selic rate tends to reduce the appetite for taking out new financing, as well as increasing the degree of default between those who already have contracts”, says the analyst.

Paloma also says that higher interest rates also imply an increase in credit expenses, with an increase in indebtedness and a reduction in disposable income for other expenses, especially those on non-essential items.

“Thus, the high Selic can harm the sales volume and revenues of retail companies such as supermarket chains, clothing, footwear and durable consumer goods, such as appliances and cars.”