Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Centão and even the owners of the money show signs that they can join Lula

Central parties, almost the entire Congress, and people “from the market” give signs that Lula da Silva (PT) may also be the unavoidable alternative for them, if only because the option, so far, is Jair Bolsonaro ( PL).

It’s still too early, especially for politicians and “the market”, who need less uncertain prospects before making their arrangements. There are eight months to go before the first round, but some features of Brazil’s shattered politics and economy may induce a certain precipitation or conformism.

In the PSD, in the MDB, in the Republicanos (Universal Church), in the PSC there are supporters of the pro-Lula stampede. So many that these parties may be unable to “close the issue” in favor of this or that candidate. This is the case of the PP, of the regents of the Bolsonaro government, Ciro Nogueira, minister of the Civil House, and Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber. In the PP, the conversation is to release “regional agreements” (join Lula or stay “neutral” until you know which boat to jump on).

Adherence to winners has always been there, of course. With even greater party fragmentation, with even smaller parties, any half-dozen evasions tend to provoke “splits”. Only two parties have more than 50 deputies (PSL and PT); only two others have more than 40 (PL and PP).

As Lula is particularly strong in the Northeast, convenience regionalism contributes to the “splits.” The Northeast has almost 30% of the seats in the Chamber. Given that Bolsonaro currently has only a quarter of the votes and a greater aversion in large cities, the split between the ruling party must also be significant in the Southeast (almost 35% of the Chamber).

It is a fact that two larger parties of the extreme right or nearly so are about to form. Bolsonaro’s PL may have 60 to 70 deputies with the migration of Bolsonaristas from the PSL to the national-monthly bill. The União Brasil may have a similar bench, joining the rest of the PSL to the DEM, among others, although in this new rightist party there are occasional Lulas.

This account is kind of silly, if taken literally. Coalitions do not guarantee presidential votes, of course, see the elections of 1989 and 2018 (two also private elections, the ruin of dominant politicians) or even that of 2006. With cell phones propagating waves of madness and lies, the result is less predictable.

Depending on how far he is from Bolsonaro by April, Lula could still be the object of a crushing campaign — also depending on his trip to the center, the amount of porridge he will eat around the edges (even from the PSDB or the PDT of Ciro Gomes ) and the “national conciliation” that he will propose.

“Conciliation” is the word that part of the “market”, the finance elite, pays attention. “Bad with Lula, worse with Bolsonaro and Third Way doesn’t exist” is a conversation you hear. Just naming a decorative deputy, a Geraldo Alckmin, is little, but a sign of goodwill. A greater agreement in Congress and a conventional economic program, to start work, at least, is a possibility that would calm any owner of money and reduce the chances of a Lula 3 government sinking as early as 2023 — no one can tolerate more persistent economic ruin, apart from the scammers. We already see here and there people from the “market” or their spokespeople saying such a thing in public.

At the reopening of Congress, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), president of the Senate, said in Bolsonaro’s face that he will not tolerate mass cell phone propaganda of lies, threats to the legitimacy of the vote and authoritarian attacks. The mood is not good for Bolsonaro, although the first informal policy deals are only closed there around April. A firm hit, only in September, if the election has a definite face, say political heads and chiefs.