Explosive overshoot of primary surplus in the period January – October at 6.084 billion euros against a target of 1.746 billion euros, according to the data of the Ministry of Finance.

Part of this overrun has been built into the draft’s projections, limiting the revenue overrun to €300m in the ten-month period, paving the way for a new emergency allowance for the vulnerable before Christmas.

According to the state budget execution data, on a modified cash basis, for the period January – October 2023, there is a deficit in the state budget balance amounting to 477 million euros against a target for a deficit of 3,484 million euros that has been included for the corresponding period of 2023 in the introductory report of the 2023 Budget and a deficit of 4,770 million euros in the corresponding period of 2022.

In the period January – October 2023, the amount of net revenues of the state budget amounted to 53,929 million euros, showing an increase of 867 million euros compared to the target included for the corresponding period in the introductory report of the 2023 Budget, despite the reduced PDE revenues, as well as the non-collection : a) the price, in the amount of 1,496 million euros for the granting of the right to use and exploit the Egnatia Odos motorway and its three vertical road axes, for a period of 35 years, which was predicted to be collected in the month of June, since the the relevant procedure for the approval of the contract is in progress and b) the third tranche of 1,718 million euros from the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RAF), which was predicted to be collected during the month of September. On the contrary, in the rest of the revenue categories there was an over-execution, which is mainly due to the increased tax revenues of the ten months, as well as the collection of an amount of 603 million euros from ANFAs, which were not foreseen in the 2023 Budget.

Tax revenues amounted to 50,821 million euros, increased by 3,921 million euros or 8.4% compared to the target included in the introductory report of the 2023 Budget. Part of this increase, amounting to approximately 470 million euros, concerns the extension of the deadline for the payment of traffic fees until the end of February 2023 , while it was estimated that this amount would be collected during the month of December 2022. The remaining amount of the over-execution comes from the better performance of the income taxes of individuals and legal entities of the previous year that were collected in installments until the end of February 2023, as well as from the best performance in collecting taxes this year.

Revenue refunds amounted to €5,550 million, increased by 545 million euros from the target (5,005 million euros), part of which is due to the refund of VAT, during the month of March, to the Administrator of Renewable Energy Sources and Guarantees (DAPEEP S.A.) amounting to approximately 220 million euros, arising from revenues collected by the DAPEEP and attributed to the State by the Temporary Mechanism for Returning Part of Next-Day Purchase Revenues.

The revenues of the Public Investment Budget (PDE) amounted to 2,808 million euros, reduced by 881 million euros from the target (3,690 million euros).

The exact distribution between the revenue categories of the state budget will be carried out with the publication of the final bulletin.

Particularly, in October 2023 the total net revenues of the state budget amounted to 5,633 million euros, increased by 844 million euros against the monthly target.

Tax revenues amounted to €5,905 million, up €832 million or 16.4% on target. It is estimated that this over-execution is due to increased VAT revenues, since the quarterly periodic declarations are submitted in the month of October which reflect, among other things, the increased turnover due to the tourist traffic of the summer season, as well as the increased revenues of the Income Tax of Natural and Legal Persons .

Revenue refunds amounted to €564 million, reduced by 16 million euros from the target (581 million euros).

The revenue of the Public Investment Budget (PDE) amounted to 107 million euros, increased by 18 million euros from the target (90 million euros).

The expenses of the State Budget for the period January – October 2023 amounted to 54,406 million euros and are presented reduced by 2,140 million euros compared to the target (56,546 million euros), which is included in the introductory report of the 2023 Budget. They are also increased , in relation to the corresponding period of 2022, by 767 million euros, mainly due to increased interest expenses by 2,132 million euros, taking into account countervailing changes in other categories of expenses.

In the section of the Regular Budget, the payments are shown reduced compared to the target by 941 million euros. This development is mainly due to the under-implementation of grants to OKAs by 1,174 million euros.

Notable payments include: the grant to the Information Society M.A.E. in the amount of 786 million euros, to serve the needs of the Market Pass and its extension, the return to the Energy Transition Fund of 367 million euros of surplus energy producers, for the period from October 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022, as well as this year’s Diesel heating subsidy payments of €100 million. All the aforementioned payments were covered by redistributing appropriations from the reserve to promote actions to tackle the energy crisis (appropriations under allocation).

Payments in the investment expenditure arm amounted to 7,730 million euros, showing a deficit of 1,199 million euros, due to the under-execution of the Recovery and Resilience Fund by 1,844 million euros. The expenditure of the PDE includes an amount of 116 million euros to service COVID-19 measures, with the most important of these, the reinforcement of health institutions with auxiliary staff to respond to the needs due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Regions, the support of start-ups in the framework of Elevate Greece, the creation of a network of nurses for the collection of samples of biological material and nursing assistance in suspected cases of coronavirus at home and the grant of existing small and medium-sized enterprises in the retail sector, which maintain a physical store, for the development, upgrading and management online store.

The Ministry of National Economy and Finance, for the correct interpretation of the above data, clarifies the following: As reflected in the Budget execution sheet, tax revenues on a cash basis in the period January-October in relation to the introductory report of the 2023 Budget appear increased by 3,921 million euros, however (a) part of this increase, in the amount of approximately 470 million euros, concerns the extension of the deadline for the payment of traffic fees until the end of February 2023 and is counted fiscally in the year 2022, (b) also an amount of 367 million euros refers to the performance of the income taxes of natural and legal persons of the previous year that were collected in installments until the end of February 2023 and is counted fiscally in the year 2022, while (c) the revenue refunds that count negatively in the fiscal result appear increased by 545 million euros from the target. Consequently, the Budget execution figures show a better performance of tax revenues up to October concerning the current year by €2.539 million compared to the 2023 Budget report.

It is noted that the revenue execution figures up to the month of September have been incorporated into the Draft Budgetary Plan, submitted in mid-October to the European Commission, which are similar to those foreseen in the draft Budget.

It is noted, however, that the State Budget execution report presents the differences in relation to the 2023 Budget report and not to the Draft Budget or the Draft Budgetary Plan. Therefore, for the months of January-September, the difference with the Draft Budget, in which both the execution of revenues and expenditures have been incorporated, is zero.

For the month of October, where companies submit their quarterly periodic declarations that reflect, among other things, the increased turnover due to the tourist traffic of the summer season, as well as the increased Income Tax revenues, the excess compared to the introductory report of the 2023 Budget is 832 million euros, however a significant part of them have been taken into account in the goals of the Draft Budget. Specifically, in relation to the revised objectives of the Draft Budget and the Draft Budgetary Plan, the overrun for the month of October (and therefore for the period January-October 2023) amounts to 300 million euros.

It is noted that the Draft Budget and the Draft Budgetary Plan have taken into account all the additional measures that have been implemented within 2023 (see first supplementary budget of 700 million euros for market pass, health costs, salary of faculty members, cost of self-governing elections, etc. ), which have been announced at the TIF and are being implemented in the next period (reinforcement of pensioners who have a personal difference, market pass for the affected areas, heating allowance, return of EFK Diesel to farmers, increase of minimum guaranteed income, etc.), as well as the compensations for natural disasters (see second supplementary budget of 600 million euros). In total, as reflected in the Draft Budget, the state budget expenditures on an accrual basis for 2023 appear increased by 2.8 billion euros compared to the forecasts of the introductory report.