Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: War between banks and fintechs already seems a thing of the past

Specialists from different banks and brokerage firms seem to have no doubts when it comes to saying that it is a good time to invest in “banks” shares. Thanks to the double-digit Selic.

In an era of expensive credit, time works in favor of those who have cash on hand. For this reason, even digital banks have lost space: they depend on burning money to attract customers, while consolidated institutions “only” need to manage the flow of what they already have. Simply put: just borrow and wait for it to come back with interest.

It is the logic that made Empiricus (the one with the YouTube ads) recommend the sale of Nubank shares and the purchase of Banco do Brasil shares. Nubank needs to grow. As for BB, it is enough to continue existing. And the increase in the interest rate generates much more uncertainty for the former than for the latter.

Despite the constant recommendations of analysts, when reality knocked at the door —Bradesco and Santander opened their most recent numbers this week—, the price of bank shares went down the drain.

While the Ibovespa (the main indicator of our market) rose 1.3% in one week, the IFNC (an index that gathers securities from the financial market) dropped 1.07%.

As a result, the shares of financial institutions, which had the best configuration among all sectors, on the 2nd, according to a report by the Eleven analysis house, began to show a weakening in the sector, according to the same analysts, on the 10th.

Apparently, this is a refreshment in a wave of exaggerated optimism before the release of the results. The scenario hasn’t changed and the numbers haven’t exactly been bad.

The interesting thing for investors is to take advantage of the annual results disclosure period and compare the plans presented at the end of 2020 to the reality imposed in 2021.

Revisiting the documents presented by Bradesco to its investors at the beginning of last year, it is a good surprise to note that the bank was (rightly) worried about the advancement of fintechs and startups.

“This competitive environment together with the accelerated process of digital innovation observed in the sector can impact our speed of adaptation to this ecosystem and consequently the performance of some lines of business, which could negatively affect our financial condition”, published the bank.

The concern was enough for the bank to run its digital banner, the Next platform, which reached 10 million customers at the end of 2021 (against 74.1 million customers of “traditional” Bradesco and 41 million of Nubank), in a growth of 170% in one year.

Although the “banks” have not met the expectations of the market, which were up there, the X-ray of the new numbers show an advance on a market that, until recently, was seen as a threat.

With the recent slump in the technology sector, the fight between banks and fintechs is starting to look like a thing of the past, with their players playing increasingly different roles in the market ecosystem.