Selic at 12.25% would take the ability to acquire a home from 4 million

The last hike in the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, took place on the 2nd, but the market is already predicting further increases. The current value, of 10.75% per year, could reach 12.25% by May, and Itaú is already considering 12.50%.

According to calculations by the coordinator of the Real Estate Business Development course at FGV (Fundação Getulio Vargas), Alberto Ajzental, if this happens, around 4 million families will no longer be able to acquire a property, compared to the beginning of last year, when the rate was at 2% per year.

With interest at the current level, almost 3.5 million families are no longer able to buy a R$250,000 apartment, the best-selling type in the country, according to the professor.

The Selic rate has a direct influence on the real estate financing rate adopted by banks. As Ajzental explains, when the first price goes up or down, changes are usually made in the interest on mortgages within two weeks.

Higher mortgage rates increase the amount to be paid in the contract and, which more directly affects buyers, the monthly installment amount.

According to Ajzental, when the Selic was at 2% per year, a standard loan for a property worth R$250,000 would have a first installment of R$2,191. With the current rate, the value rose to R$ 2,725, an increase of R$ 534.

In addition to the greater weight in the monthly budget, more expensive financing requires proof of greater income. In real estate credit, it is advisable for the buyer to commit a maximum of 30% of the family income. Thus, the minimum income to be able to finance the same property went from R$ 7,303 to R$ 9,083 — it is necessary to earn R$ 1,780 more.

Today, a family income of R$ 9,083 is equivalent to almost 7.5 minimum wages.

At the end of the contract, calculated by Ajzental as having a duration of 20 years, the total amount disbursed by the buyer will be BRL 427,047, BRL 64 thousand more than expected with Selic at 2% per year.

“I’m not saying that the family that earns R$ 7,000 will no longer buy real estate, but it is no longer able to buy the R$ 250,000 one”, says the coordinator.

The situation will only get worse with the new increases foreseen for the basic interest rate. The next meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee), which defines the changes in the Selic, is scheduled for March 15th and 16th.

The five largest banks in the country have not yet made new increases in their mortgage rates in the more traditional modality, which is indexed to the TR (reference rate), after the most recent increase in the Selic, but there have been changes since the end of 2021.

Bradesco increased the minimum interest rate from 8.5% per year to 9.5% in December, and informed that it is evaluating further changes. Santander also increased by one percentage point, from 8.99% to 9.99% per year in January. Banco do Brasil changed its minimum rate from 7.58% to 7.99% per year. At Itaú, the rate, which started at 8.3% per year, is now at 9.1%. All fees are plus TR.

Caixa made its last increase in November, raising the minimum rate from 7.25% per year to 8%, but the bank points out that there was an adjustment in the criteria so that the customer can access the rate at its minimum value, which made it more hard to reach it. The bank’s over-the-counter rate, the maximum amount charged, is 8.99% per annum plus TR.

The institution’s president, Pedro Guimarães, said at the end of November that no further readjustments in the mortgage rate were foreseen.

In addition to financing interest, consumers face rising inflation, which should result in an increase in property values ​​and a general loss of purchasing power, another obstacle to home ownership. The IPCA, the official inflation index, was 10.38% in the last 12 months, the highest value for January since 2016.