The market raised the outlook for the basic interest rate at the end of 2022, after the Central Bank left open the course of the Selic and amid inflationary pressure, at the same time that it increased the forecast for the rise of the prices.
The Focus survey released by the BC on Monday (14) showed that economists consulted began to calculate the Selic rate now at 12.25% at the end of 2022, against a rate of 11.75% predicted the previous week. For 2023, it follows the Selic estimate at 8.0%
The BC raised the Selic by 1.5 percentage points for the third consecutive time at the beginning of the month, to 10.75% per year, indicating a reduction in the pace of adjustment at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), in March.
Last week, the minutes of the meeting showed the monetary authority’s concern with the adoption of fiscal policies that seek to control inflation in the short term, in a document interpreted by the market as harsh, although it did not advance in information on the percentage of monetary tightening. which will be adopted at the next board meeting.
The Focus also pointed out that the expectation for the rise of the IPCA this year increased by 0.06 percentage point, going to 5.5%, while, for next year, it follows at 3.5%.
The center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5% and for 2023 it is 3.25%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
Consumer inflation in Brazil started 2022 in a slowdown but with the highest rate for the month of January in six years, 0.54%, going to 10.38% in the accumulated in 12 months.
For the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the growth estimate followed at 0.3% for 2022, but fell to 1.5% in 2023, from 1.53% before.
RELIEF ON GOVERNMENT DEBT
On the other hand, the financial market has improved the projection for the primary result of the federal government’s accounts in 2022, with a more positive estimate for the gross debt in the year, showed a Prisma Fiscal report released this Monday by the Ministry of Economy.
According to the document, which collects projections with market agents on data referring to public accounts, the expectation for the central government’s primary result this year was a deficit of BRL 74 billion, compared to a deficit of BRL 88.7 billion. billion projected for the same period in the January survey. In December, the estimate was R$ 95.5 billion.
The data reflects an improvement in projections for the government’s net revenue this year, with an increase from BRL 1.64 trillion in the previous report to BRL 1.65 trillion in this month’s survey. There was an increase, to a lesser extent, in the estimate of total government expenditure, from R$1.72 trillion to R$1.73 trillion.
Analysts consulted by the ministry reduced the expectation for the general government’s gross debt in 2022 to 83.55% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to 84% in the January survey.
For 2023, market projections indicate a primary deficit of BRL 58.3 billion in the central government, compared to BRL 52.6 billion in the estimate provided by the previous report. Gross debt next year, according to forecasts, should be 86% of GDP, compared to 86.2% forecast last month.
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