GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew 4.7% in Brazil in 2021, project data from the GDP Monitor of FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas). The estimate was released on Tuesday (15).
With the result, the activity would compensate for the loss of 3.9% recorded in 2020, the initial year of the pandemic, points out the monitor. Researcher Claudio Considera, coordinator of the FGV Ibre survey, says that the high is largely related to the comparison base weakened by Covid-19.
Among the major sectors of the economy, the highlight came from services, which increased by 4.7%. The segment is the main one from the point of view of supply in GDP. It is also the major employer in the Brazilian economy.
The advancement of services, says the monitor, was stimulated by vaccination against the coronavirus. In 2020, the sector had fallen by 4.3%.
Still from the perspective of supply, the industry advanced 4.4% in 2021, after falling 3.4% in the previous year. Agriculture rose 0.6%, after rising 3.8% in 2020.
“The Brazilian economy in 2021 compensated for the decline in 2020, growing 4.7%, thanks mainly to the growth of the service sector due to vaccination. All components, both supply and demand, showed growth”, said Considera .
From a demand perspective, household consumption rose 3.4% in 2021, after a 5.4% drop in the previous year. The growth was already expected due to the low base of comparison caused by the pandemic and the advance of vaccination against Covid-19, signals the monitor.
On the other hand, productive investments in the economy, measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation, advanced 16.7% compared to 2020. The decline had been 0.5% in the initial year of the health crisis.
In addition, exports rose 5.4% last year, and imports, 13.2%. Government consumption increased by 1.7%.
“If we had been concerned about the vaccine before, the GDP could have grown more”, points out Considera.
The monitor seeks to anticipate the pace of economic activity in Brazil from month to month. The official GDP result is calculated every three months by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The next IBGE release, referring to the fourth quarter and the accumulated of 2021, is scheduled for March 4th.
In current values, FGV Ibre estimated a GDP of R$ 8.685 trillion. The indicator for 2021, however, is still lower than for the period of 2013 and 2014, before the recession that would bring down the economy in 2015 and 2016, ponders the survey.
In the case of GDP per capita, which divides the production of goods and services by the population, the performance is even weaker. The indicator is lower than in 2010, according to the monitor.
Up 0.7% in the fourth quarter
In the quarterly analysis, the GDP monitor indicated growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to the third. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, the advance was greater, at 1.9%.
In the monthly analysis, GDP increased by 0.8% in December, compared to November. In comparison with the same month of 2020, the increase reached 3%.
In the view of analysts, the scenario for the economy in 2022 is more complicated. Amid electoral uncertainties, persistent inflation and higher interest rates, projections indicate GDP with a variation close to 0% in the accumulated this year.
“The Macro Bulletin of FGV Ibre makes a projection of 0.7%. It is a very low result. I don’t see any major growth factor this year”, says Considera.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
