By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

The first official figures of the execution of the budget are highly satisfactory. 461m€ the excess of tax revenues, 825m€ the excess of revenues in total and a small saving of 190m€ on the expenditure side. That’s how January ended with me primary surplus €2.1 billion against a target of €1.1 billion

And just like every time the numbers are positive and on the occasion of the “descent” of the farmers next Tuesday in Athens, a discussion about benefits started by those who wonder aloud “but why doesn’t the government give something more since there is money ” and from those who take it even further and crave Easter bonanzas.

The very interesting thing is that the numbers are also used by Kostis Hatzidakis to argue that in essence at the moment there is no extra money either to be given to farmers now, much less for benefits in May.

First, as emphasized by Minister of Finance, this year the budget’s goal is to produce a primary surplus of €5 billion, almost twice as much as last year. The €2.1bn surplus in January is a good start but we are still at the beginning.

Secondly, although it is only February, the government has already given €212m more than the budget projections passed in December with its decisions to increase the birth allowance, doctors’ on-call hours and the EFC of farmers.

Third is the markets-watch-everything argument, and the last thing the government would want is an upset especially now that borrowing costs have fallen by one point after regaining investment grade.

Fourth, as emphasized by Victory, is that the budget must also keep reserves just in case. Climate crisis and emergency obligations forced the government into 2 supplementary budgets last year. Storm Daniel alone cost €3.3bn (although the cost will not be fully covered by public funds).

After all, the numbers themselves are “made up”. Not that someone is “cooking” them, simply that the overwhelming majority of the budget surplus this year is due to …last year.

According to the GLK’s announcement, €159m refers to revenues of the Recovery and Resiliency Fund which were received later.

€205 million concern retroactive payments of equipment programs

€399m of tax collections go back to 2023 (income tax and ENFIA) and the same will happen with February collections.

In this way, €763 million of the €1.1 billion of the excess of the primary fiscal surplus will be recorded in 2023 even though cash was collected this year.

And that’s why the financial staff recommends …calmness.