Commodities Shuttle: Drought specter persists and agricultural commodities rise again

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Agricultural commodities rose again this Wednesday (16), despite the drop in oil prices. Soybean and its derivatives had the highest percentages of increase, since the concern with the climatic conditions in South America still persists.

In Brazil, more consultancies have reduced oilseed production estimates, with some forecasting just 122 million tonnes in the 2021/22 crop. The initial potential indicated up to 145 million.

In Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean producer, the specter of drought continues to haunt the market. This is an important period for the development of crops, and expectations are for a new heat wave this week.

Paraguay is experiencing an unprecedented situation. Traditional soy exporter to Argentina, it is importing from the neighboring country. More pessimistic estimates already indicate a Paraguayan production of only four million tons. Initial estimates were ten million.

The country’s crushers fear the lack of soy in the second half of this year. This dramatic supply condition in South America favors rising prices.

In addition, the dollar is falling in Brazil against the real, which makes Brazilian soybeans less competitive, encouraging North American exports and supporting prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange.

The dollar index (which shows the performance of the US currency against a basket of other currencies) also falls, showing that the market is more prone to risk.

This scenario further facilitates the entry and exit of financial resources in agricultural commodities, making the market more volatile.

Oil, with a less tense scenario in Eastern Europe, retreated to a level close to US$ 91 (R$ 469), with a drop of 1.2% on the day.

The March soybean contract rose to $15.87 a bushel (27.2 kg) on ​​Wednesday in Chicago, up 2.3%. Following soybeans, meal rose 2.4%, and soybean oil, 2%.

The rise also extended to corn, coffee and wheat. Sugar was stable, and cotton fell.

In the domestic market, price monitoring by AgRural showed R$ 187 per bag of soybeans in Cascavel (PR), a value 9% higher than a month ago. In Sorriso (MT), the high was 10%, with the bag being traded at R$ 173 this Wednesday.

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