By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

Kostis Hatzidakis was also categorical, and Pavlos Marinakis that no Easter bonama will be given. But everyone was discussing among themselves that, approaching Easter and given that June 9th there are also the European elections, the government would make a turn and give something. It wouldn’t be the first time with this government and previous ones.

But it is another thing to hear the prime minister himself say no. And not a temporary refusal of the “let’s see how the budget will go” style, but a categorical refusal, clear that if something is given it will be accountable at the end of the year.

The prime minister’s statements made on SKAI televisionhas been preceded by its announcement ELSTAT according to which the 2023 growth rate was significantly below estimates. 2% compared to 2.4%, i.e. approximately €900m are “missing”. We therefore start from a negative base for the 2024 target of 2.9%, a target that becomes even more difficult since the Eurozone does not seem to be “raising its head” either. The ECB revised down the Eurozone growth rate for this year from 0.8% to 0.6%.

Also this year is the first year where the fiscal “rage” enters the cupboard. 2024 is the year of the return of the fiscal primary surplus targets and indeed 2.1%. In plain English this year the budget target is to produce a primary surplus of €5bn, almost double last year’s and Easter gifts could be seen by the markets as a casus belli.

The instinctive response of most would be, “yeah but the budget is going well”, which is true. The official figures from the General Accounting Office of the State show an excess of revenues for January amounting to €993m and combined with a restraint of expenses by €182m, a primary surplus results by €1.1bn higher than the initial estimates.

To a large extent, however, this image is … from last year. €159 million concern revenues from the Recovery and Resilience Fund which were collected later.

€205 million concern retroactive payments of equipment programs

€307 million from tax collections go back to 2023 (income tax and ENFIA) and something similar will happen with the February collections.

That is, €680 million of the €1.1 billion of the excess is counted in 2023.

To all this must be added 212m€ in addition to the budget provisions passed in December with its decisions on the increase in the birth allowance, doctors’ on-call hours and farmers’ social insurance. We’re almost here one day or another…..

As emphasized by the Ministry of Finance, the budget must also hold reserves just in case. Climate crisis and emergency obligations forced the government into 2 supplementary budgets last year. Storm Daniel alone cost €3.3bn (although the cost will not be fully covered by public funds).