The three main indicators of the Brazilian real estate market –sales, launches and final offer– ended 2021 on a high, compared to the previous year, but lost strength in recent quarters.
Balance released this Monday (21) by Cbic (Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry) points to a decline of almost 10% in sales of new properties in Brazil in the fourth quarter of last year. From January to December, however, there was an increase of 12.8%.
Of 72,200 residential units sold between October and December 2020, the sector closed the same period last year with 65,200 closed deals. It was the second quarter in a row with a drop in sales. All regions of the country registered fewer trades compared to the last quarter of 2020.
The result considering the 12 months of 2021 points to an increase of 12.8%. Of 231,700 properties sold in 2020, the sector sold 261,400 units last year.
The good percentage result, despite the decline of the two final quarters of 2021, also reflects the behavior of the construction and development market in 2020. Until the middle of the year, the results were poor and reflected the crisis situation triggered by the beginning of the pandemic.
Starting in July, the stimulus to social distancing and low interest rates gave strength to the sector. Therefore, when comparing the first quarters of 2020 with 2021, the beginning of last year was one of growth, as it has a weakened base.
In the final half of the year, this trajectory was reversed with the drop in sales, while in 2020, the period had been one of growth.
The Cbic survey is carried out with the support of Senai (National Service for Industrial Learning) in 176 cities, including 20 metropolitan regions.
In the case of launches, the data show stability in the quarter, with an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous year. Traditionally, the last quarters of the year concentrate the launches.
From 83,300 new units announced in the last quarter, developers reached 85,000 properties launched between October and December 2021. In one year, the result was better. There were 265,600 properties launched in the 176 markets monitored by Cbic, compared to 211,000 the previous year, an increase of 25.9%.
With the drop in sales and a lower growth in launches in the last quarter, the final offer of properties registered a high of 3.8% in the three-month period between October and December of last year. This was also the variation in supply in 12 months.
According to Cbic, the time for the current offer to run out is 10.7 months. This indicator seeks to measure how long all available units would be sold if no new launches were made, based on the average sales of the last 12 months.
Yellow Green House loses strength
In the Casa Verde Amarela program, successor to Minha Casa, Minha Vida, there was a drop in all indicators for the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020. Launches fell 11.1%, sales, 16.6%, and the final offer, 6.1%. In the 12-month period, there was an increase of 8.5% in the number of launches, and of 3.4% in sales.
The housing program has been losing ground in the market in recent years due to the reduction in the volume of resources allocated by the government, but also because the reduction in interest rates has made it possible to access credit through conventional financing lines.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, Casa Verde e Amarela accounted for 41% of the residential units launched, and for 45% of what was sold. A year earlier, the program accounted for 47% of launches and 49% of sales.
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