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Tuesday, February 7, 2023
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Bitter coffee prices, crisis in Ukraine shakes stock markets and what matters in the market

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ANDThis is the edition of the FolhaMercado newsletter for this Tuesday (22). want to receive it from monday to Friday at 7 am In your email? Sign up below.


Why is coffee so expensive?

You may have noticed on your trips to the supermarket: coffee is getting more and more expensive.

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To explain how the price of the commodity reached such a high level in the country that leads global production, it is necessary to resort to a set of factors:

  • Negative biennial: The coffee crop is characterized by a year of higher production, which took place in 2020, and another of lower production, observed in 2021.
  • Damage from the weather: drought and frost occurrences in states such as Minas Gerais and São Paulo in 2021 harmed the plantation and should also impact this year’s crop. Phenomena like these have become more frequent and intense with climate change.
  • High cost: inputs also became more expensive during the pandemic. Highlight for the soaring prices of fertilizers, which have a good part of the raw material imported.

In numbers: coffee comes in a sequence of 11 highs in a row in the IPCA, the country’s official inflation index. In the 12-month period up to January, the advance reached 56.87%.

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What to expect from 2022? The year is one of positive biennials, and the expectation is for a production 16.8% higher compared to 2021. Even so, the harvest should be smaller than those of 2020 and 2018.

More bitter coffee: understand here how climate change has led Brazilian producers to prefer canéfora beans (robusta and conilon), stronger, bitter and heat resistant than the delicate arabica.

More about agro:

Commodities shuttle: Brazil’s weight in the commodity market will grow in the decade, estimate the USA.


Americans out of the air

The alleged hacker attack on the Americanas.com and Submarino websites and applications, which began on Saturday (19) and continued on Monday (21), takes away from the company about BRL 110 million in sales every day they go down.

The Shoptime page, another brand of the Americanas group, is also inactive. See how to protect yourself from online store data leaks.

Understand: the sites began to show instability as soon as the company promoted a party on Globo’s reality show Big Brother Brasil, with a show by singer Thiaguinho. Americanas made the decision to take down the website and the app to protect customer data.

According to the company, the physical stores did not have their activities interrupted.

In numbers: the estimated loss in sales was made by retail specialists at the request of sheetbased on company data in the third quarter.

  • Goldman Sachs estimates in a report that digital sales should reach BRL 52.9 billion in 2022, accounting for 77% of the total.
  • The bank also points out that Americanas is the third largest ecommerce platform in the country, behind Mercado Livre and Magalu.

Serial attacks: if the hacker attack on Americanas is confirmed – the company cites only an “unauthorized access” – it would be another episode of a cybercrime that exploded during the pandemic.

Last year, companies like JBS, Renner and Fleury were targets of a ransomware-type attack, in which the victim has data and systems hijacked by the criminals.

Time is money: experts point out that in these cases the time it takes the company to put the sites back online is essential to understand the size of the impact. On Monday, Americanas shares closed down 6.61%.


What if there’s a war?

Tension gripped markets on Monday after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the autonomous areas resulting from Ukraine’s civil war and sent troops to support Russian ethnic separatists.

in numbers: on a public holiday in the US, the Ibovespa dropped 1.02%, at 111,725 ​​points, but fell less than European stocks. The Russian index plummeted by more than 10%the biggest drop since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

The dollar closed down by 0.70%, BRL 5.10, at the lowest price in almost seven months. The flow of foreign money in search of opportunities in Brazil continues to help the real to appreciate.

What if there’s a war? In the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West would respond with sanctions. Despite the conflict taking place far from Brazilian borders, it should affect the prices of gasoline and even bread here.

  • Columnist Vinicius Torres Freire recalls that Ukraine sells 17% of corn on the world market, and the two countries directly involved in the conflict export 30% of wheat bought by the rest of the planet.
  • In fuels, Russia is an important source of energy for Europe, both oil and natural gas, and a blockade would affect the already low supply of commodities.
  • This Monday, the Brent barrel soared 3.76%at US$97.06, renewing the highest price since 2014.

Meet Combo, Folha’s new newsletter

THE sheet launched this Monday (21) Combo, a free and exclusive newsletter about video games that will be sent every Monday. To subscribe to it for free, sign up below.

Understand: Combo will be full of details about what matters most in the gaming area, and will also have analysis on trends, technology and, of course, gaming tips.

The newsletter is edited by journalist Tiago Ribas, who writes for the newspaper about games and has played for over 20 years, from the first Game Boy to the current PlayStation 5.

why it matters: the games sector became the focus of market attention at the beginning of the year after the series of billion-dollar purchases announcements.

  • The most notable was the acquisition of the production company Activision Blizzard, of “Call of Duty”, by Microsoft, owner of Xbox, for $75 billion (R$ 402 billion).
  • Less than 15 days later, Sony, from PlayStation, counterattacked with the purchase of game developer Bungie, creator of “Halo”, by $3.6 billion (R$ 19 billion).
  • Before two, Take-Two, the producer of “GTA”, had already closed the purchase of mobile game maker Zynga for $12.7 billion (R$ 68 billion).

It doesn’t stop there: the games market already earns more than the film and music industries combined. The sector is also a priority for big tech companies, which are eyeing the opportunities that may arise with the metaverse.

IPOs and mergers and acquisitions in the area must exceed $150 billion in 2022, according to investment bank Drake Star Partners.

Catalog: in addition to Combo and FolhaMercado, sheet has 17 more newsletters. See options and how to apply.


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