Auspicious the prospects for the are deleted electricity and natural gas prices as investments in new LNG export units mature.

In a speech she made on Tuesday in the European Parliament about the conclusions of the recent Summit, the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that today “a large new wave of LNG export projects is entering the market. So, we will probably soon move from a global LNG deficit to a global LNG surplus and, as a result, we expect prices to decline.”

This perspective is particularly important for Greece, which last year achieved a 42% reduction in natural gas prices for households, the largest among the countries of the European Union. The result of this rapid reduction was that prices in Greece were lower than in the EU – specifically in the second half of 2023 they fell to 0.0926 euros per kilowatt hour against 0.1125 euros on average in the EU.

Given that a significant percentage of electricity generation still comes from plants that use natural gas as fuel – despite the expansion of renewable energy (RES) generation – it is clear that low gas prices will help keep levels and electricity prices. According to Eurostat data, the price of electricity for households in Greece in the second half of 2023 was also significantly lower than the EU average, namely at 0.2309 per kilowatt hour against 0.2832 euros, respectively.

The price of natural gas on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange (TTF), for May delivery contracts, is below 30 euros per megawatt hour, a level that corresponds to only one eighth of what it was in August 2022, when Russia announced the shutdown of Nord Stream.

Even if next winter is not as mild as it was this year and last year, as some market players fear, or if there is stronger LNG demand from China, prices are expected to be subdued as the fullness of LNG storage facilities in Greece it is impressively high. According with data from KYOS European Gas Analytics, this percentage exceeded 88% in the middle of the week, while in the EU the corresponding percentage for LNG reached 60% and for natural gas 62%.

In the energy sector, a source of concern remains oil prices, which have been significantly affected by Israel’s war with Hamas and the escalation of the crisis in the Middle East, incorporating a risk premium estimated at around $10 a barrel.

Brent, which is bought by Europe and Greece, has hovered below $90 a barrel for the past two weeks as investors saw that Iran had no intention of responding to Israel’s attack, which in turn it was a limited-scale response to a previous similar move by Tehran.

According to analysts, oil prices could rise further, possibly to $100 a barrel or more, only if there is a new escalation in the region that will actually limit oil supply, which has not happened to date.

Therefore, uncertainty about oil prices will remain high, as will their volatility, as long as the crisis in the Middle East continues.