A painful stock market cycle of more than 13 years is closed by the stock market having returned in April 2011.

The total capitalization of the market has exceeded the levels of 100 billion euros, which it had “seen” since the beginning of November 2009, when the index was at 2,400 units.

At the same time, average daily trading activity soared to pre-Lehman Brothers levels, more than 15 years ago.

The average daily transaction value in the first quarter of 2024 was €146.046 million, up 32% compared to 2023.

Since the beginning of the year, the Greek stock market (based on Thursday’s close) has gained 14.24% and is in fourth place in the world ranking of stock markets.

The general index comes from a multi-month rally as the market since October 9 and 1,105 units, records gains of 34%.

The 14% gains recorded since the beginning of 2024 by the General Price Index confirm the upward momentum of the stock market and the target of 1,500 units is very close, in the first phase, with the next target, according to analysts, the movement of the market above the levels of 1,600 units, levels that the Athens Stock Exchange has “seen” since the end of March 2011 (1,611 units).

Some domestic analysts set as a potential target the levels of 1,670-1,690 points, according to the long-term technical picture of the market, levels at which the market was just before the loss of the investment grade.

Greece lost investment grade on April 27, 2010, when Standard & Poor’s became the first house to downgrade it to “junk.” The general index “wrote” that day 1,696.68 points, with a drop of 6%. Of course, it was preceded by a continuous fall from the 2,327 points the market was at in early 2010, as the specter of Greece’s bailout opened up more and more clearly, until April 23 and Greece’s appeal to the International Monetary Fund.

The market mainly finds supports:

– In the strong development story of the Greek economy. The Greek economy has at least for the next few years a “free corridor” of growth in conditions of fiscal stability under the condition that there will be no serious escalation in the Middle East or other unforeseen negative developments in the turbulent geopolitical environment. This is the common conclusion of all the reports and estimates made public recently by the International Monetary Fund, the Standard & Poor’s rating agency, foreign investment houses and Greek institutes. The Greek Economy will also be in 2024, one of the first in development in the EU.

Growth of 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2025 is predicted by the IMF, IOBE “sees” this year’s growth rate at 2.1%, while S&P estimates that the Greek economy will grow at an average rate of 2.4% the five-year period 2024-2027. The Greek economy remains resilient and is expected to grow at a rate of 2% this year and 2.5% in 2025, according to the OECD.

– Fiscal stability. In 2023 the Greek economy achieved a surprising surplus, reaching 1.9% of GDP, when in 2022 it was zero. The GDP in 2023 increased to 220.3 billion compared to 206.6 billion in 2022 and 181.5 billion in 2021. Exceeding the target regarding the primary surplus has a reflection in the fields: First, in the faster reduction of the public debt . Based on the above result, the Debt-to-GDP ratio was reduced from 172.7% in 2022 to 161.9% in 2023. Second, in creating a better starting point for achieving the 2024 fiscal targets, despite the international turmoil and the slowdown of international and European growth rates. Thirdly, this result sends a strong signal to the international markets that the Greek economy is strengthening and growing beyond the targets, despite the difficulties and extraordinary events that the country has faced (natural disasters, international crises, double national elections, etc.)

– In the dynamics created by the recovery of the investment grade. Greece’s latest exit to the markets with a 30-year bond confirmed the strong vote of confidence in Greek bonds by offering 33 billion euros, while the interest rate was set at a level that certifies the investment grade and is directly compared to the corresponding interest rates of other Eurozone countries. The exit of the State to the markets last January had gathered high offers of 35 billion. In other words, within almost two months, only the Greek bonds attracted 68 billion euros, and if we add the offers for other Greek assets as well, we are talking about more than 100 billion. euros, in recent months.

At the same time, the upgrade of the Greek debt outlook from stable to positive by Standard & Poor’s places Greece in the anteroom of a new substantial upgrade in the next 12 months.

– The high profitability of listed companies supports stock valuations. The results of the companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange show an explosion of profitability, and stock market analysts estimate that they will achieve the highest profitability in 16 years, since 2007, when the profits were formed at 11.3 billion euros.

In 2023 the profits of listed companies are expected to exceed the 10.4 billion euros achieved in 2022, while the financial ones are estimated to exceed 4 billion euros, the highest amount since 2008 (4.49 billion) and 2007 (5.42 billion euros).

2024 returns

Since the beginning of the year, the biggest increase has been registered by the shares of Q&R (+106.67%), Moda Bango (+75.13%), Evrofarma (+40.42%) and Sarantis (+38.57%) ). On the contrary, the biggest losses were recorded by the titles of Intercontinental Intl (-33.75%), Akrita (-26.21%), Progressive (-22.11%) and Avax (-21.51%).

Of the high capitalization shares, since the beginning of 2024 the biggest increase is recorded by the shares: Titan (+45.45%), Sarantis (+38.57%), Eurobank (+28.57%), National (+28 ,57%), GEK TERNA (+27.20%), Coca Cola HBC (+19.83%), Terna Energy (+18.24%), Piraeus (+18.12%), ELPE (+16, 07%), Viohalco (+15.97%), Motor Oil (+13.80%), Aegean Airlines (+13.14%), OTE (+12.40%) and Jumbo (+10.67%) . Elvalhalcor (+9.73%), PPA (+6.90%), Mytilineos (+6.70%), Alpha Bank (+5.78%), PPC (+5.29%) showed smaller gains ), Lamda Development (+4.44%), Ellaktor (+2.75%), Quest (+2.71%), OPAP (+1.04%), Autohellas (+0.47%).

On the contrary, only the EYDAP share is down.