Global stocks hit new all-time highs or hover near records, even as several key risks (geopolitical, higher interest rates) take center stage.

On Wall Street o S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time highs recently, while the index Dow Jones broke a few days ago the level of 40,000 units for the first time. But also the major stock markets in Europe, Canada, Brazil, India, Japan and Australia are very close to their historical peaks. In fact, the total capitalization of all stock markets exceeded 100 trillion. dollars exceeding world GDP. Capital markets have proven to be quite resilient, despite constant turbulence.

Increased appetite for risk-taking prevailed in the global investment community, on a monthly basis, despite the fall in the last days of May, with the stock markets registering significant gains.

The picture of the US economy remains relatively good, despite persistent inflationary pressures, showing slower progress towards the Fed’s 2% target. In the Eurozone, labor market conditions remain particularly good, with inflation now quite close to the ECB’s target.

At the level of Central Banks, at Fed there is a delay in the start of the downward cycle of the intervention interest rate, while in ECB a reduction in the upcoming June meeting is virtually certain.

The new year began with the expectation of a reduction in interest rates from the second half of the year, while the profitability of the Companies showed for the first time, after four quarters, a positive growth rate.

Despite the rise, according to a recent survey of Bank of America Global Fund Manager which included 245 fund managers with a total of $562 billion in assets under management, are bullish on the markets, at their highest levels since November 2021. Eight in ten fund managers expect rate cuts, mainly in the second half, while “increased positions » their equity positions are at their highest since January 2022, while cash positions (at 4% of portfolios) have fallen to three-year lows.

The dangers

What could spoil the climate? Keeping US interest rates high for a longer period of time.

Also many stocks are also at high valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8, well above its historical average of 15.7.

Political uncertainty due to the US presidential election, as well as the risk of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could also spoil the mood.

High inflation at 41%, geopolitical developments at 18%, a sharp economic slowdown at 15%, the US election at 9%, a credit crunch at 8% and a bubble in AI stocks at 4% are the biggest risks , according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey of 245 fund managers.

The elections

Another uncertainty which will slowly come to the fore is the US presidential election.

With the US presidential election less than six months away, headlines surrounding the campaigns have the potential to create swings in market sentiment.

While data since 1928 suggests that markets tend not to do better or worse during election years than on average, the political stance of candidates could affect the performance of certain sectors in the short term.

A Trump victory or otherwise “Trump II”, could have a bigger impact in Europe than in the US, the German bank reckons Berenberg. As before, more protectionism and the risk of a trade war with the US would hurt the smaller and more export-oriented European economies more than the US.

The specific risks that a Trump victory could entail for Europe could cloud investment sentiment toward the region even months before the election.

The assessments of international houses

THE Citi sees rate cuts starting around mid-year. As he points out, history suggests that after interest rate cuts begin: 1) stocks typically move 10% higher in the following 12 months, 2) P/E ratios rise 10% on average, 3) all industries they move higher.

THE Deutsche Bank for the S&P 500 he estimates will reach 5,500 by the end of 2024, up from 5,235 (close Thursday 5/30/) as it will be boosted by high corporate profitability (“We see the earnings cycle has many legs,” analysts said the bank’s).

Three scenarios for the markets are being considered by HSBC. In the first Goldilocks scenario (strong growth and waning inflation), HSBC estimates global equities will run a further 7% in 2024 and this upward momentum will continue into 2025 with a further 15% annual rally.

HSBC believes global equities can still perform strongly in a mini-stall scenario, albeit with more volatility: in a persistent inflation environment, global equities will remain broadly flat for the rest of 2024 amid Fed uncertainty, but will increase by 10% in 2025 as markets gain greater clarity and profitability continues to strengthen.

During periods of high inflation, stocks perform poorly, with returns of -3% on an annualized basis.

In a recession scenario stocks will fall by about 10%, according to history. THE HSBC believes faster rate cuts by central banks and easing financial conditions would help stocks recover quickly.

“Bear” n Bank of America for European markets as it expects weakening European growth and a drop in ECB interest rates to underperform European stocks.

Overall, its macroeconomic forecasts BofA they point to a nearly 10% underperformance for European shares through early next year against international markets, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down around 15% from current levels overall.

High probability for corrections in the markets in the coming months and increasingly intense volatility “sees” the UniCredithowever does not expect the generally supportive stock market environment to completely reverse.