Despite the gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions, the global computer market will remain stagnant in 2024. Of course, considering that PC sales have been in a vice for the past two years, the marginal performance expected this year is progress for the PC market.

Worldwide, according to IDC, more than 260 million PCs will be sold this year, with the Chinese market holding back sales from a more noticeable rise. According to IDC, China will prevent the PC market from recovering as the country’s economy faces multiple challenges and in the short term, inventories remain high.

The PC market is forecast to grow by 2.6% YoY in 2024, excluding China, where the PC market is not expected to recover until the 2nd half of 2025.

For consumer devices, IDC expects overall sales to decline by 1.1% in 2024. Excluding China, the market would be up 1.6% year-over-year. Increased interest rates along with demand for other devices such as smartphones are expected to hit the consumer segment of the market.

What will boost the market?

IDC analysts comment that the market recovery will be slow, despite device refresh cycles, which are just around the corner and despite the emergence of computers with artificial intelligence (IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker).

One of the factors that will provide support to the computer market is the upcoming renewal cycle of devices used in education (29.6 million computers shipped to this market).

“Although budgets are not as large as they were during the pandemic, many computers, purchased during the pandemic, need to be renewed. However, the lower budgets mean that the renewal cycle will be spread over many years and so, it will not translate into a big spike that will happen in a short period of time, like during the pandemic.” IDC reports.

Another factor that will provide support to the PC market is the new Windows refresh cycle that is about to begin, as the end of support for Windows 10 at the end of 2025 is expected to lead to device replacement, which is estimated to start from the 2nd semester of 2024.

The role of AI

Outside of renewal cycles, AI computing is also expected to drive short-term sales growth. However, in the long term, AI computing is not likely to increase the volume of PCs sold, but is predicted to fuel an increase in average selling price (ASP).

“While the buzz around AI in devices may seem unwarranted, due to the lack of clearly defined use cases for businesses and business users, these devices will bring with them a significant change, offering PCs capabilities such as content production and increased productivity. However, consumer adoption will likely come later as users are educated about the benefits of AI in devices versus solutions based on cloudit will not be a simple matter”, IDC concludes.