Oil prices soared on Monday as Western allies imposed more sanctions on Russia and blocked some Russian banks from the global Swift payments system, which could cause severe disruptions to their oil exports.
Brent crude rose 2.7% to US$100.58 (R$516.86) after reaching US$105.07 (R$539.93) a barrel in early trading.
“Growing concerns about disruptions to Russia’s energy supply are pushing up oil and gas prices,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank.
Russia is facing severe disruptions to its exports of all commodities from oil to grains after Western nations imposed tough sanctions on Moscow and cut some Russian banks from the Swift international payments system.
“Russia could retaliate against these harsh measures by reducing or even completely suspending energy shipments to Europe,” Fritsch said.
Russian crude accounts for about 10% of global supply.
Goldman Sachs raised its one-month Brent price forecast to $115 a barrel from $95 previously.
“We expect the price of commodities of which Russia is a key producer to rise from here – this includes oil,” the bank said.
Talks between Ukraine and Russia began on the Belarusian border, a Ukrainian presidential adviser said, with the aim of agreeing an immediate ceasefire.
“If there is any progress at this meeting, we will see a sharp reversal in the markets. We will see equities rise, the dollar rise and oil fall,” said OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley.
British oil company BP BP.L has decided to exit its Russian investments in oil and gas, opening a new front in the West’s campaign to isolate Russia’s economy. BP is Russia’s biggest foreign investor.
Sanctions and the exodus of Western oil companies could affect Russian oil production in the short term, analysts said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are due to meet on March 2.
Ahead of the meeting, OPEC+ lowered its forecast for the 2022 oil market surplus by around 200,000 barrels of oil a day to 1.1 million, underscoring market tightness.
Russian oil buyers face difficulties with payments and ships
Russian oil buyers face huge difficulties with payments and availability of ships, traders said on Monday.
Traders said Russian oil buyers struggled to find ships in the Baltic Sea to load cargo after March 10. There are reports that freight costs for delivering Russian oil have increased fivefold in the Black Sea in one week.
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