After a bitter fall with the arrival of the pandemic in 2020, the Brazilian economy rose by 4.6% in 2021, according to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data released this Friday (4) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistic).
The result came close to financial market expectations. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency had forecast a rise of 4.5%.
The 2021 growth is the highest since 2010, when GDP increased by 7.5%.
The IBGE also reported that, in the fourth quarter of last year, the indicator increased by 0.5% compared to the three immediately previous months. In this cut, the result surprised analysts, since the median of the market signaled an increase of 0.1%.
As a result, GDP recovered the losses suffered from the pandemic and is 0.5% above the level observed in the fourth quarter of 2019, the last without the effects of Covid-19. Even so, it is 2.8% below the peak of the historical series, recorded in the first quarter of 2014.
The breath of GDP reaction, however, tends to be short, analysts indicate. After the rise in 2021, the indicator should decelerate in 2022.
According to economists, the trend is for stagnation this year. In other words, the forecast is for GDP close to 0% in the accumulated until December.
The median of market projections signals an advance of 0.30% in 2022, according to the most recent edition of the Focus bulletin, released on Wednesday (2) by the BC (Central Bank).
The impact of high interest rates, persistent inflation and weakened income explain the most pessimistic scenario for this year. Together, these factors play against household consumption, the engine of the Brazilian economy.
Other risks to the GDP come from the global tension generated by the war between Russia and Ukraine and from the electoral uncertainties in Brazil, which could put a brake on productive investments throughout the year.
“The scenario for 2022 is one of stagnation, with inflation still high and income low. Monetary policy should also weigh, slowing down activity”, says economist Luca Mercadante, from Rio Bravo Investimentos.
“It is still complicated to talk about the effects of the war, but one of the possible consequences is the decrease in global growth”, he adds.
According to analysts, the 2021 rise largely reflects the effect of the weakened comparison base, as the initial phase of the health crisis had brought down GDP in 2020. At the time, the drop was 3.9%, the largest in the IBGE series, with data since 1996.
In 2021, the improvement in the indicator was also stimulated by the advance of vaccination against Covid-19, which allowed the reopening of businesses dependent on the circulation of consumers.
“Much of the growth in 2021 is due to the statistical load. In addition, there was an impact from the reopening of the economy. These were the two main factors”, says the chief economist at C6 Bank, Felipe Salles.
“We also had the positive effect of the strong growth of the global economy”, he adds.
Among the sectors surveyed on the supply side, there was an increase in the year in services (4.7%) and industry (4.5%). Agriculture, which had been less impacted by the arrival of the pandemic, retreated 0.2%.
On the demand side, there was a 17.2% growth in productive investments in the economy, measured by GFCF (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), after a drop of 0.5% in the previous year. Household consumption increased 3.6% in 2021, after falling 5.4% in 2020.
The IBGE also reported that GDP per capita reached R$ 40,688 last year, an increase of 3.9%. The indicator, however, remains below the pre-pandemic level of 2019, according to the institute.
GDP per capita considers the value of production or income divided by the population. “The GDP is above the level of the fourth quarter of 2019, but the GDP per capita is not yet. The population continued to grow”, said the coordinator of National Accounts at IBGE, Rebeca Palis.
CALCULATION OF GDP
Products, services, rents, utilities, taxes and even contraband. These are some of the components of GDP, calculated by the IBGE, according to international standards. The objective is to measure the production of goods and services in the country in a given period.
The indicator shows who produces, who consumes and the income generated from this production. GDP growth (discounting inflation) is usually called economic growth.
The survey is presented from the perspective of supply (what is produced) and demand (how these products and services are consumed). Quarterly GDP is released approximately 60 days after the end of the period in question.
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